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Stochastic and deterministic trends in Finnish macroeconomic time series

  • Mikael Linden

    (University of Helsinki)

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    The appropriateness of the Dickey-Fuller unit root test is studied using two alternative unit root test models. The segmented trend model is strongly supported and the second-order trend model is favoured for some series. The sample set consists of observations of nine basic macroeconomic time series describing the fundamentals of the Finnish economy between 1860 and 1989. The results clearly show that care is required in interpreting unit-root tests since failure to reject does not entail that the null is true. Structural breaks in the data generating process, in this case wars starting in 1917 and 1939, support models of the deterministic trends class. However, it is argued that the univariate testing procedures laid down in the unit root literature do not provide information to macroeconomic controversies.

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    File URL: http://taloustieteellinenyhdistys.fi/images/stories/fep/f1992_2d.pdf
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    Article provided by Finnish Economic Association in its journal Finnish Economic Papers.

    Volume (Year): 5 (1992)
    Issue (Month): 2 (Autumn)
    Pages: 110-116

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    Handle: RePEc:fep:journl:v:5:y:1992:i:2:p:110-116
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.taloustieteellinenyhdistys.fi

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    1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1989. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root and Infinite Variance Errors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 897R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit Roots in Real GNP: Do We Know, and Do We Care?," NBER Working Papers 3130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
    4. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1988. "Searching For a Break in GNP," NBER Working Papers 2695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "The Durbin-Watson Ratio Under Infinite Variance Errors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 898R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
    7. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park, 1988. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 880, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
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