IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eut/journl/v15y2010i1p33.html

Estimating and Forecasting Demand for Broad Money in Iran through Cointegration Analysis and Stochastic Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Gholam Reza Eslami-Bidgoli

    (Associate Professor of University of Tehran)

  • Saeed Bajalan

    (Master of Finance, Financial Analyst of Tejarat Bank)

  • Mehdi Mirza Bayati

    (Graduate Student of Finance)

Abstract

This study estimates the demand for broad money in Iran through multivariate Cointegration analysis as proposed by Johansen and Juselius and tests the validity of the estimated model through forecasting money demand for several periods Using stochastic simulation technique. The study obtained one unique cointegrated long run relationship among the logarithmic forms of Broad Money, National Income, Exchange Rate, Price Index and Oil Prices. After identification of exogenous variables, system of equation was designed and estimated by OLS method. Model was solved by considering two scenarios: Baseline and Scenario1.In the Baseline the variables were considered endogenous and in the Scenario 1, Price Index and Oil Price were regarded as exogenous. This model was solved with stochastic simulation approach and give dynamic forecast of the variables. The results show that there is trivial difference between actual values and amount forecasted under Scenario1. On the other hand, forecasted amounts by Baseline scenario have relatively substantial deviations from the actual outcomes, though they do seem to follow the general trends in the data very well.

Suggested Citation

  • Gholam Reza Eslami-Bidgoli & Saeed Bajalan & Mehdi Mirza Bayati, 2010. "Estimating and Forecasting Demand for Broad Money in Iran through Cointegration Analysis and Stochastic Simulation," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 15(1), pages 33-50, winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:eut:journl:v:15:y:2010:i:1:p:33
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://80.66.179.253/eut/journl/20101-3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-461, October.
    2. Adam, Christopher S, 1991. "Financial Innovation and the Demand for LM3 in the UK 1975-86," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(4), pages 401-424, November.
    3. H. Yamada, 2000. "M2 demand relation and effective exchange rate in Japan: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 229-232.
    4. Yoshihisa Baba & David F. Hendry & Ross M. Starr, 1992. "The Demand for M1 in the U.S.A., 1960–1988," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 25-61.
    5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Shabsigh, Ghiath, 1996. "The demand for money in Japan: Evidence from cointegration analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João, 2003. "Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies? A literature review," Working Paper Series 261, European Central Bank.
    2. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611, June.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2007. "How Stable Is The Demand For Money In China?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 21-33, June.
    4. Mr. Subramanian S Sriram, 1999. "Survey of Literature on Demand for Money: Theoretical and Empirical Work with Special Reference to Error-Correction Models," IMF Working Papers 1999/064, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ge Wu, 2009. "Broad Money Demand and Asset Substitution in China," IMF Working Papers 2009/131, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Kumar, Saten & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2012. "Error-correction based panel estimates of the demand for money of selected Asian countries with the extreme bounds analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1181-1188.
    7. Helmi Hamdi & Ali Said & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Money Demand Function in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 603-612.
    8. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    9. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange rate misalignment and its effects on agricultural producer support estimates: empirical evidence from India and China," MTID discussion papers 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. repec:pra:mprapa:40579 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Keblowski, Piotr & Welfe, Aleksander, 2010. "Estimation of the equilibrium exchange rate: The CHEER approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1385-1397, November.
    13. Hans Franses, Philip & Koehler, Anne B., 1998. "A model selection strategy for time series with increasing seasonal variation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 405-414, September.
    14. Abbas, Faisal & Hiemenz, Ulrich, 2011. "Determinants of Public Health expenditures in Pakistan," Discussion Papers 118422, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    15. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:33:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Anderson, Richard G. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H., 2002. "A vector error-correction forecasting model of the US economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 569-598, December.
    17. Kate Phylaktis & David Blake, 1993. "The fisher hypothesis: Evidence from three high inflation economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 129(3), pages 591-599, September.
    18. Arne Kildegaard, 2006. "Fundamentals of real exchange rate determination: What role in the peso crisis?," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 21(1), pages 3-22.
    19. Donyina-Ameyaw, Samuel, 2004. "A Small Macroeconmetric Model Of Trade And Inflation In Ghana," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 696, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    20. Asad Zaman, 2010. "Causal Relations via Econometrics," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 2(1), pages 36-56, April.
    21. repec:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:2:p:164-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muge Karacal, 2006. "The demand for money in Turkey and currency substitution," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 635-642.
    23. Julien Malizard, 2013. "Opportunity Cost Of Defense: An Evaluation In The Case Of France," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 247-259, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eut:journl:v:15:y:2010:i:1:p:33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: [z.rahimalipour] (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fecutir.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.