Ireland’s Trading Potential with Central and Eastern European Countries - A Gravity Study
Using a gravity model, we estimate the magnitude of potential trade flows between Ireland and the five CEEC countries which are currently negotiating accession to the EU. We find that Irish exports were already close to their “normal” level in 1994, but that imports from the CEECs were still less than half of their potential size. The value of estimated potential trade corresponds to 0.8 per cent of Irish GNP. The actual share in 1994 was 0.5 per cent. EU enlargement would raise Ireland-CEEC trade to 1.2 per cent of GNP. The short-term scope for trade expansion therefore appears to be modest. Stronger potential for trade growth emerges in the “long-term” scenario, which assumes partial income convergence of the EU and the CEECs. According to our upper-limit estimate in the convergence scenario, the value of Irish trade with the CEECs could reach 8.3 per cent of Irish GNP in 2020.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Deardorff, A.V., 1995.
"Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?,"
95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Greenaway, David & Nam, Chong Hyun, 1988. "Industrialisation and Macroeconomic Performance in Developing Countries under Alternative Trade Strategies," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 419-35.
- Robert C. Feenstra & James A. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998.
"Undertstanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods,"
NBER Working Papers
6804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feenstra, Robert & Markusen, James R. & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
- Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 1997.
"Technology and Bilateral Trade,"
Boston University - Institute for Economic Development
79, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Dieter Schumacher, 1995.
"Impact on German Trade of Increased Division of Labour with Eastern Europe,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
116, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Schumacher, D., 1995. "Impact on German Trade of Increased Division of Labor with Eastern Europe," Papers 6, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
- Vittas, H. & Mauro, P., 1995. "Potential Trade with Core and Periphery: Industry Differences in Trade Patterns," Papers 10, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521088237 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gual, Jordi & Martín, Carmela, 1994. "Trade and Foreign Direct Investment with Central and Eastern Europe: Its Impact on Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 1006, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Karolina Ekholm & Johan Torstensson & Rasha Torstensson, 1996. "The Economics of the Middle East Peace Process: Are There Prospects for Trade and Growth?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 555-574, 09.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:30:y:1999:i:2:p:159-174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Frank Walsh)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.