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Ireland's Trading Potential with Central and Eastern European Countries: A Gravity Study

  • Marius Brülhart
  • Mary Kelly

Using a gravity model, we estimate the magnitude of potential trade flows between Ireland and the five CEEC countries currently negotiating accession to the EU. We find that Irish exports were already close to their "normal" level in 1994, but that imports from the CEECs were still only half of their "normal" size. The value of estimated "normal" trade corresponds to 0.8 percent of Irish GNP. The actual share in 1994 was 0.5 percent. EU enlargement would raise Ireland-CEEC trade to 1.2 percent of GNP. The short-term scope for trade expansion therefore appears to be modest. Stronger potential for trade growth emerges in the "long-term" scenario, which assumes partial income convergence of the EU and the CEECs. According to our upper-limit estimate in the convergence scenario, the value of Irish trade with the CEECs could reach 7.7 percent of Irish GNP in 2020.

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Paper provided by Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics in its series Economics Technical Papers with number 9815.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduet:9815
Contact details of provider: Postal: Trinity College, Dublin 2
Phone: (+ 353 1) 6081325
Fax: 6772503
Web page: http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/

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  1. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  2. Feenstra, Robert & Markusen, James R. & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 1997. "Technology and Bilateral Trade," NBER Working Papers 6253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Karolina Ekholm & Johan Torstensson & Rasha Torstensson, 1996. "The Economics of the Middle East Peace Process: Are There Prospects for Trade and Growth?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 555-574, 09.
  6. Schumacher, D., 1995. "Impact on German Trade of Increased Division of Labor with Eastern Europe," Papers 6, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
  7. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521088237 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Greenaway, David & Nam, Chong Hyun, 1988. "Industrialisation and Macroeconomic Performance in Developing Countries under Alternative Trade Strategies," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 419-35.
  9. Vittas, H. & Mauro, P., 1995. "Potential Trade with Core and Periphery: Industry Differences in Trade Patterns," Papers 10, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
  10. Gual, Jordi & Martín, Carmela, 1994. "Trade and Foreign Direct Investment with Central and Eastern Europe: Its Impact on Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 1006, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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