IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ers/ijebaa/vxivy2026i1p34-53.html

Investigating the Impact of Consumer Confidence and Exchange Rates on Purchasing Decisions in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Tshifhiwa Makhalimela
  • Tshilidzi Munzhelele

Abstract

Purpose: The study investigates the long-term and short-term impacts of consumer confidence and the exchange rate on consumer purchasing decisions in South Africa over the period 2013 to 2023. Design/Methodology/Approach: In this study, a range of data analysis techniques and methodologies to examine the impact of consumer confidence and exchange rates on purchasing decisions in South Africa were utilized. Tests for unit roots are carried out to check for stationarity in time series data. These are the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests. Johansen's cointegration method was utilized to test if the variables included in the study were cointegrated. The vector error correction model (VECM) was estimated to determine the exogenous variables' short-term and long-term effects. Statistical diagnostics such as the Lagrange Multiplier (LM), Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey (BPG), and Jarque-Bera (JB) were also carried out to ensure that a robust and statistically sound model was obtained. Findings: The results demonstrate a long-term equilibrium relationship among consumer confidence, exchange rates, household income (as a control variable), and purchasing decisions. In the short term, consumer confidence and household income emerge as statistically significant drivers of purchasing behavior, while the exchange rate shows a weaker, yet negative, impact. Granger causality tests further highlight the dynamic interplay between these variables, indicating unidirectional causality from consumer confidence to purchasing decisions and bidirectional causality between household income and purchasing decisions. Practical Implications: The study suggests that clear and open communication from policymakers and government officials to customers can considerably increase consumer confidence. Regular updates on economic realities, fiscal measures, and future economic plans can help minimise uncertainty and boost consumer confidence. Originality/Value: The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and policymakers can determine suitable interest rates and manage currency exchange rates to encourage or stabilise consumer spending by having a better understanding of how consumer confidence and exchange rates impact purchase decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Tshifhiwa Makhalimela & Tshilidzi Munzhelele, 2026. "Investigating the Impact of Consumer Confidence and Exchange Rates on Purchasing Decisions in South Africa," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 34-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:ijebaa:v:xiv:y:2026:i:1:p:34-53
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ijeba.com/journal/917/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephane Dees & Pedro Soares Brinca, 2013. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 134, pages 1-14.
    2. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    3. Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2011. "Consumer Confidence and Aggregate Consumption Expenditures in the United States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-18, February.
    4. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 148-161, March.
    5. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    6. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    7. Charles Engel, 2016. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 436-474, February.
    8. Li, Jie & Wu, Yu & Xiao, Jing Jian, 2020. "The impact of digital finance on household consumption: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 317-326.
    9. Meerza, Syed Imran Ali & Gustafson, Christopher R., 2020. "Consumers’ Response to Food Fraud: Evidence from Experimental Auctions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(2), March.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    2. John Khumalo, 2014. "Consumer Spending and Consumer Confidence in South Africa: Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(2), pages 95-104.
    3. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Can international macroeconomic models explain low-frequency movements of real exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 199-211.
    4. Chan, Kalok & Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang, 2018. "Conditional co-skewness and safe-haven currencies: A regime switching approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 58-80.
    5. Dookie, Michele & Lugay, Beverly & Sergeant, Kelvin A., 2011. "Consumer confidence and economic growth: case studies of Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 4086, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Candian, Giacomo, 2019. "Information frictions and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 189-205.
    7. Wai-Yip Alex Ho & James Yetman, 2014. "Do economies stall?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(35), pages 4267-4275, December.
    8. Ali, Sharafat, 2014. "Inflation, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 53706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Erik Kole & Liesbeth Noordegraaf-Eelens & Bas Vringer, 2019. "Cognitive Biases and Consumer Sentiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-031/I, Tinbergen Institute, revised 21 Mar 2023.
    11. Herwartz, Helmut & Neumann, Michael H., 2005. "Bootstrap inference in systems of single equation error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 165-193, September.
    12. Anella Munro, 2016. "Bond premia, monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    13. Aneta Maria Kłopocka, 2017. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 693-717, September.
    14. Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić & Mirjana Čižmešija, 2022. "Recent Revision of the European Consumer Confidence Indicator: Is There any additional Space for Improvement?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 845-863, February.
    15. Maparu, Tuhin Subhra & Mazumder, Tarak Nath, 2017. "Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 319-336.
    16. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    17. Euler Pereira G. de Mello & Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo, 2014. "Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices," Working Papers Series 371, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    18. Hanjo Odendaal & Monique Reid & Johann F. Kirsten, 2020. "Media‐Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 409-434, December.
    19. Singh, Tarlok, 2010. "Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 231-253, March.
    20. Marks, Daan, 2010. "Unity or diversity? On the integration and efficiency of rice markets in Indonesia, c. 1920-2006," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 310-324, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ers:ijebaa:v:xiv:y:2026:i:1:p:34-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marios Agiomavritis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ijeba.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.