IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ere/journl/vxxxvy2016i2p151-174.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Informalidad, productividad y crecimiento en México, 2000.Q2- 2014.Q4

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo Loría

    (Profesor tiempo completo del Centro de Modelística y Pronósticos Económicos (CEMPE), Facultad de Economía, UNAM. México, Distrito Federal.)

  • Malinalli Aupart

    (Becaria del Centro de Modelística y Pronósticos Económicos (CEMPE), Facultad de Economía, UNAM. México, Distrito Federal.)

  • Emmanuel Salas

    (Investigador del Centro de Modelística y Pronósticos Económicos (CEMPE), Facultad de Economía, UNAM. México, Distrito Federal.)

Abstract

El desmedido aumento del sector informal, tradicional válvula de escape del mercado laboral, ha condicionado un lento crecimiento de la economía mexicana desde la década de los ochenta. A partir de una lectura del modelo de Lewis (1954), proponemos que el crecimiento de la informalidad en México ha creado limitantes al crecimiento de largo plazo, mediante una sistemática reducción de la productividad factorial total. La estimación de un Vector de Corrección de Error VECM(4) aporta evidencia de la reducción de la productividad debido al crecimiento del sector informal, que asociado a un lento crecimiento hace que se perpetúe un círculo vicioso de la improductividad, muy difícil de romper.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Loría & Malinalli Aupart & Emmanuel Salas, 2016. "Informalidad, productividad y crecimiento en México, 2000.Q2- 2014.Q4," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 151-174, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxv:y:2016:i:2:p:151-174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economia.uanl.mx/revistaensayos/xxxv/2/2_Informalidad_Loria.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cimoli, Mario & Primi, Annalisa & Pugno, Maurizio, 2006. "Un modelo de bajo crecimiento: la informalidad como restricción estructural," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    2. Maloney, William F., 2004. "Informality Revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1159-1178, July.
    3. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    6. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, Decembrie.
    7. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Loría, Eduardo & Rojas, Susana & Martínez, Eduardo, 2021. "Okun’s law in Mexico: an analysis of heterogeneity among States, 2004–2018," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2015. "Dynamic steam coal market integration: Evidence from rolling cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 510-520.
    3. Takamitsu Kurita & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Partial cointegrated vector autoregressive models with structural breaks in deterministic terms," Economics Papers 2018-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    4. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Marzio Galeotti & Fakhri J. Hasanov, 2018. "The Impact of Economic Growth on CO2 Emissions in Azerbaijan," IEFE Working Papers 102, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    6. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Lester C. Hunt & Ceyhun I. Mikayilov, 2016. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand in Azerbaijan Using Cointegration Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-31, December.
    7. Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2017. "Energy-growth long-term relationship under structural breaks. Evidence from Canada, 17 Latin American economies and the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 121-134.
    8. repec:got:cegedp:68 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Santos, João & Domingos, Tiago & Sousa, Tânia & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2016. "Does a small cost share reflect a negligible role for energy in economic production? Testing for aggregate production functions including capital, labor, and useful exergy through a cointegration-base," MPRA Paper 70850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Brian McCaig & Nina Pavcnik, 2015. "Informal Employment in a Growing and Globalizing Low-Income Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 545-550, May.
    11. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    13. Mansor Ibrahim, 2006. "Integration or Segmentation of the Malaysian Equity Market: An Analysis of Pre- and Post-Capital Controls," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 424-443.
    14. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    15. Gaetano D’Adamo, 2014. "Wage spillovers across sectors in Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 523-552, September.
    16. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Timur Hulagu, 2011. "Informal-Formal Worker Wage Gap in Turkey : Evidence From A Semi-Parametric Approach," Working Papers 1115, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    17. Ahlgren, N. & Antell, J., 2008. "Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap tests of cointegration rank with financial time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(10), pages 4754-4767, June.
    18. Hartmut Lehmann, 2015. "Informal Employment in Transition Countries: Empirical Evidence and Research Challenges," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 57(1), pages 1-30, March.
    19. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    20. Mr. Subramanian S Sriram, 2009. "The Gambia: Demand for Broad Money and Implications for Monetary Policy Conduct," IMF Working Papers 2009/192, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Nordman, Christophe J. & Rakotomanana, Faly & Roubaud, François, 2016. "Informal versus Formal: A Panel Data Analysis of Earnings Gaps in Madagascar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    informalidad; crecimiento económico; productividad factorial total; exogeneidad débil; Vector de Corrección de Errores;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxv:y:2016:i:2:p:151-174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dora María Vega Facio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feualmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.