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Informalidad, productividad y crecimiento en México, 2000.Q2- 2014.Q4

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo Loría

    () (Profesor tiempo completo del Centro de Modelística y Pronósticos Económicos (CEMPE), Facultad de Economía, UNAM. México, Distrito Federal.)

  • Malinalli Aupart

    () (Becaria del Centro de Modelística y Pronósticos Económicos (CEMPE), Facultad de Economía, UNAM. México, Distrito Federal.)

  • Emmanuel Salas

    () (Investigador del Centro de Modelística y Pronósticos Económicos (CEMPE), Facultad de Economía, UNAM. México, Distrito Federal.)

Abstract

El desmedido aumento del sector informal, tradicional válvula de escape del mercado laboral, ha condicionado un lento crecimiento de la economía mexicana desde la década de los ochenta. A partir de una lectura del modelo de Lewis (1954), proponemos que el crecimiento de la informalidad en México ha creado limitantes al crecimiento de largo plazo, mediante una sistemática reducción de la productividad factorial total. La estimación de un Vector de Corrección de Error VECM(4) aporta evidencia de la reducción de la productividad debido al crecimiento del sector informal, que asociado a un lento crecimiento hace que se perpetúe un círculo vicioso de la improductividad, muy difícil de romper.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Loría & Malinalli Aupart & Emmanuel Salas, 2016. "Informalidad, productividad y crecimiento en México, 2000.Q2- 2014.Q4," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 151-174, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxv:y:2016:i:2:p:151-174
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    File URL: http://www.economia.uanl.mx/revistaensayos/xxxv/2/2_Informalidad_Loria.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cimoli, Mario & Primi, Annalisa & Pugno, Maurizio, 2006. "Un modelo de bajo crecimiento: la informalidad como restricción estructural," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    2. Maloney, William F., 2004. "Informality Revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1159-1178, July.
    3. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    4. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    7. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    8. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    informalidad; crecimiento económico; productividad factorial total; exogeneidad débil; Vector de Corrección de Errores;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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