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Impacto económico de alternativas de inversión para el sistema de pensiones en México

Author

Listed:
  • Lillian Marlen Centeno Cruz

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía)

  • Pilar Campoy Muñoz

    (UNIVERSIDAD LOYOLA ANDALUCÍA)

  • Gerardo Ángeles Castro

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía)

Abstract

Hoy en día, el sistema de pensiones en México, basado en la Ley del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social de 1997, no cumple con la tasa de cobertura prevista, lo que provoca el empobrecimiento de la población retirada. Se espera que esta situación empeore debido a que los trabajadores no pueden contribuir lo suficiente a sus propias cuentas de ahorro dentro del sistema actual. La presente investigación contribuye al debate sobre las reformas del sistema de pensiones a través de la evaluación de escenarios alternativos para la inversión de fondos de pensiones. Estos escenarios son generados mediante el análisis estructural de la economía mexicana, tomando como base la Matriz de Contabilidad Social (MCS) denominada SAMMEX-12. A continuación, se emplea un modelo lineal MCS para llevar a cabo una evaluación de impacto económico, lo que permite evaluar dichas escenarios en términos de producción, PIB y empleo.Economic Impact Assessment of Alternative Investment Scenarios for Pension Funds in MexicoABSTRACTNowadays, the pension system in Mexico, based on the Mexican Social Security Institute Law of 1997, does not comply with the expected coverage rate, which causes the impoverishment of the retired population. This situation is expected to worsen because workers can´t contribute enough to their own savings accounts within the current system. The present research contributes to the debate on the reforms of the pension system through the evaluation of alternative scenarios for the investment of pension funds. These scenarios are generated through the structural analysis of the Mexican economy, based on the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) called SAMMEX-12. Next, a linear model MCS is used to carry out an economic impact assessment, which allows evaluating these scenarios in terms of production, GDP and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Lillian Marlen Centeno Cruz & Pilar Campoy Muñoz & Gerardo Ángeles Castro, 2019. "Impacto económico de alternativas de inversión para el sistema de pensiones en México," Ensayos Revista de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, vol. 38(1), pages 87-134, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:38:y:2019:i:1:id:127
    DOI: 10.29105/ensayos38.1-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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