Determinants of the Venezuelan Banking Crisis of the Mid-1990s: An Event History Analysis
This paper uses event history analysis to test the significance of several macro-economic and bank-specific variables in explaining bank failures during the Venezuelan banking crisis of the mid-1990s. Poor bank profitability, proxied by a low net interest margin, and low GDP growth are found significant in increasing the probability of bank failure. Other useful indicators, for some model specifications, are the share of nonperforming loans and that of non productive assets to banks’ own funds, which raise the likelihood of crisis. A large amount of bank liquid assets, in turn, reduces the likelihood of failure for some model specifications. The opposite is true for high real deposit rates. Although it could be interpreted, at first sight, as a too restrictive monetary policy, this is not supported by the lack of significance of the real lending rate and, even more so, real money growth, a more direct indicator of the monetary policy stance.
Volume (Year): XIV (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January-June)
|Contact details of provider:|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1975. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 21-36, March.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises; Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
- Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995.
"Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
- Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1993. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1993. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 93-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
- Richard E. Randall, 1989. "Can the market evaluate asset quality exposure in banks?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 3-24.
- Pettway, Richard H., 1980. "Potential Insolvency, Market Efficiency, and Bank Regulation of Large Commercial Banks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 219-236, March.
- James R. Barth & R. Dan Brumbaugh & Daniel Sauerhaft & George H.K. Wang, 1985. "Thrift institution failures: causes and policy issues," Proceedings 68, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Robert B. Avery & Gerald A. Hanweck, 1984. "A dynamic analysis of bank failures," Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics 74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Banking Crises; Was Asia Different?," IMF Working Papers 98/91, International Monetary Fund.
- Alicia GarcÃa-Herrero, 1997. "Monetary Impact of a Banking Crisis and the Conduct of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 97/124, International Monetary Fund.
- International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Financial Soundness Indicators; Analytical Aspects and Country Practices," IMF Occasional Papers 212, International Monetary Fund.
- Linda M. Hooks, 1995. "Bank Asset Risk: Evidence From Early-Warning Models," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(4), pages 36-50, October.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1994. "Can deposit insurance increase the risk of bank failure? Some historical evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 57-71.
- Katerina Simons & Stephen Cross, 1991. "Do capital markets predict problems in large commercial banks?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 51-56.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
- Brenda GonzÃ¡lez-Hermosillo, 1999. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress; A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes," IMF Working Papers 99/33, International Monetary Fund.
- Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:14:y:2005:i:1:p:71-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ricardo Tiscareño)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.