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Prueba de causalidad y determinación de la NAIRU

  • Bellod Redondo, José Francisco

    (Universidad de Murcia, España)

In this paper we study the NAIRU conception and its determination for Spanish economy since 1976 to 1997. It’s a very important conception in actual Macroeconomics but there are strong controversies about it. We have linked it with other important conception –causality- and we have applied the Granger Causality test and Sims Causality test to NAIRU series trying to clarificate that controversies. Main results point that there isn’t causal relationship from NAIRU to inflation acceleration.// En este artículo estudiamos el concepto de NAIRU y su determinación para la economía española en el periodo 1976-1997. Se trata de un concepto de gran importancia en la macroeconomía actual, aunque existen grandes controversias acerca de su viabilidad. Hemos ligado este concepto a otro de no menos importancia- la causalidad- y para ello hemos aplicado las pruebas de causalidad de Granger y de Sims a las series de la NAIRU previamente determinadas con el fin de esclarecer tales controversias. Los resultados apuntan en la dirección de inexistencia de relación causal entre la NAIRU y la aceleración de la inflación.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXVI (4) (1999)
Issue (Month): 264 (octubre-diciembre)
Pages: 663-692

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:66:y:1999:i:264:p:663-692
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