IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prueba de causalidad y determinación de la NAIRU


  • Bellod Redondo, José Francisco

    (Universidad de Murcia, España)


In this paper we study the NAIRU conception and its determination for Spanish economy since 1976 to 1997. It’s a very important conception in actual Macroeconomics but there are strong controversies about it. We have linked it with other important conception –causality- and we have applied the Granger Causality test and Sims Causality test to NAIRU series trying to clarificate that controversies. Main results point that there isn’t causal relationship from NAIRU to inflation acceleration.// En este artículo estudiamos el concepto de NAIRU y su determinación para la economía española en el periodo 1976-1997. Se trata de un concepto de gran importancia en la macroeconomía actual, aunque existen grandes controversias acerca de su viabilidad. Hemos ligado este concepto a otro de no menos importancia- la causalidad- y para ello hemos aplicado las pruebas de causalidad de Granger y de Sims a las series de la NAIRU previamente determinadas con el fin de esclarecer tales controversias. Los resultados apuntan en la dirección de inexistencia de relación causal entre la NAIRU y la aceleración de la inflación.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellod Redondo, José Francisco, 1999. "Prueba de causalidad y determinación de la NAIRU," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(264), pages 663-692, octubre-d.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:66:y:1999:i:264:p:663-692

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Ana R. de Lamo & Juan J. Dolado, 1993. "Un modelo del mercado de trabajo y la restricción de oferta en la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(1), pages 87-118, January.
    3. Akaike, Hirotugu, 1981. "Likelihood of a model and information criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-14, May.
    4. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
    5. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters,in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Paul Davidson, 1984. "Reviving Keynes’s Revolution," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 561-575, July.
    7. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen, 1986. "Unemployment in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages 121-169, Supplemen.
    8. Allin Cottrell, 1985. "Keynesianism and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Problem in Pedagogy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 7(2), pages 263-268, January.
    9. Anthony Myatt, 1986. "On the Non-Existence of a Natural Rate of Unemployment and Kaleckian Micro Underpinnings to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 447-462, March.
    10. Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-12.
    11. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    12. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
    13. A. Asimakopulos, 1975. "A Kaleckian Theory of Income Distribution," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 8(3), pages 313-333, August.
    14. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February.
    15. Mayer, Thomas, 1980. "Economics as a Hard Science: Realistic Goal or Wishful Thinking?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 165-178, April.
    16. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
    17. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    18. Dudley Dillard, 1988. "The Barter Illusion in Classical and Neoclassical Economics," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 299-318, Oct-Dec.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Gómez García, F. & Rebollo Sanz, Y. & Usabiaga Ibáñez, C., 2002. "Nuevas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española: métodos directos," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 509-530, Diciembre.
    2. Dionisio Ramirez & Gabriel Rodr¨ªguez, 2014. "Do Labor Reforms in Spain Have an Effect on the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate?," International Journal of Social Science Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 105-120, January.
    3. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2011. "La función de producción de Cobb-Douglas y la economía española," Revista de Economía Crítica, Asociación de Economía Crítica, vol. 12, pages 9-38.

    More about this item


    This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
    1. NAIRU in Wikipedia Spanish ne '')


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:66:y:1999:i:264:p:663-692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rosa María González Mejía). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.