IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/elg/rokejn/v3y2015i4p491-516.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causes of the decline of economic growth in Italy with special reference to the post-euro period: a balance-of-payments approach

Author

Listed:
  • Elias Soukiazis

    (University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal)

  • Pedro André Cerqueira

    (University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal)

  • Micaela Antunes

    (University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the causes of the poor growth performance in Italy and the responsibility of the euro for this crisis. The theoretical approach applied is based on the balance-of-payments constraint hypothesis (known as Thirlwall's law), adapted to include internal and external imbalances. Our empirical analysis shows that both the extended model and the original Thirlwall's law over-predict the actual growth in Italy, suggesting that there are supply constraints that impede the economy from growing faster. Another conclusion is that part of the decline in economic growth is explained by the loss of competiveness during the euro period. A scenario analysis shows that a budget deficit and public debt discipline aiming at achieving the goals of the Stability Pact are not significant stimuli for faster growth. On the other hand, reducing the import dependence of the components of demand, or reducing the import and increasing the export shares in the economy, are the most effective policies for fostering growth in Italy.

Suggested Citation

  • Elias Soukiazis & Pedro André Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2015. "Causes of the decline of economic growth in Italy with special reference to the post-euro period: a balance-of-payments approach," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 491—516-4, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:3:y:2015:i:4:p491-516
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.elgaronline.com/abstract/journals/roke/3-4/roke.2015.04.04.xml
    Download Restriction: Restricted access
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Palley, 2003. "Pitfalls in the Theory of Growth: An application to the balance of payments constrained growth model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 75-84.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    3. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    4. Carlos Garcimartín & Luis A. Rivas & Pilar García Martínez, 2010. "On the role of relative prices and capital flows in balance-of-payments-constrained growth: the experiences of Portugal and Spain in the euro area," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 281-306, January.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    6. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1998. "On Capital Flows and The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, December.
    7. Forni, L. & Gerali, A. & Pisani, M., 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Greater Competition In The Service Sector: The Case Of Italy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 677-708, November.
    8. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    9. Bacha, Edmar L., 1990. "A three-gap model of foreign transfers and the GDP growth rate in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 279-296, April.
    10. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), 2012. "Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-02395-7.
    11. Thomas I. Palley, 2009. "Imports and the income-expenditure model: implications for fiscal policy and recession fighting," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 311-322, December.
    12. John Y. Campbell & Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1994. "Models of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 94-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Soukiazis, Elias & Cerqueira, Pedro A. & Antunes, Micaela, 2012. "Modelling economic growth with internal and external imbalances: Empirical evidence from Portugal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 478-486.
    14. Salvatore D'Acunto & Sergio Destefanis & Marco Musella, 2004. "Exports, Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 167-189.
    15. Taylor, Lance, 1994. "Gap models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 17-34, October.
    16. ., 1994. "Rational Actor Models," Chapters, in: Geoffrey M. Hodgson & Warren J. Samuels & Marc R. Tool (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Institutional and Evolutionary Economics, volume 0, chapter 127, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
    18. Charalambos Pattichis, 2001. "Trade, Growth, and Monetary Union," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 125-147, September.
    19. A. P. Thirlwall, 1982. "The Harrod Trade Multiplier And The Importance Of Export-Led Growth," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21.
    20. Tom A. B. Snijders & Roel J. Bosker, 1994. "Modeled Variance in Two-Level Models," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 22(3), pages 342-363, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    2. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2012. "Causes of the Decline of Economic Growth in Italy and the Responsibility of EURO: A Balance-of-Payments Approach," GEMF Working Papers 2012-03, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    2. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2013. "Growth rates constrained by internal and external imbalances and the role of relative prices: empirical evidence from Portugal," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 275-298.
    3. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes & Ioannis Kostakis, 2018. "The Greek economy under the twin-deficit pressure: a demand orientated growth approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 215-236, March.
    4. Elias Soukiazis & Pedre André Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2013. "The Effects of Internal and External Imbalances on Italy´s Economic Growth. A Balance of Payments Approach with Relative Prices No Neutral," GEMF Working Papers 2013-14, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    5. Irfan Civcir & M. Emir Yücel, 2020. "Effects of Internal and External Imbalances and the Role of Relative Prices on Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, June.
    6. Elias Soukiazis & Eva Muchova, 2012. "Slovak economic growth and the consistency of the balance-of-payments constraint approach," GEMF Working Papers 2012-16, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    7. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2022. "Linking the BOPC growth model with foreign debt dynamics to the goods and labour markets," MERIT Working Papers 2022-029, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro André Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2012. "Growth Rates Constrained by Internal and External Imbalances: A Demand-Orientated Approach," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 5, pages 144-167, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Elias Soukiazis & Eva Muchova & Pedro A. Cerqueira, 2014. "Is the Slovak Economy Doing Well? A Twin Deficit Growth Approach," GEMF Working Papers 2014-08, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    11. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    12. Kemp-Benedict, Eric, 2014. "Shifting to a Green Economy: Lock-in, Path Dependence, and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 60175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Arslan Razmi, 2013. "Correctly Analyzing the Balance of Payments Constraint on Growth," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2013-12, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    14. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes & Ioannis Kostakis, 2018. "The Greek economy under the twin-deficit pressure: a demand orientated growth approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 215-236, March.
    15. Hiroshi Nishi, 2019. "Balance‐of‐payments‐constrained cyclical growth with distributive class conflicts and productivity dynamics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 620-640, November.
    16. Penelope Pacheco-Lopez & A.P. Thirlwall, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, the Balance of Payments and Growth in Latin America," Studies in Economics 0506, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    17. Kvedaras, Virmantas & Garcimartín, Carlos & Astudillo, Jhonatan, 2020. "Balance-of-Payments constrained growth dynamics: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 232-244.
    18. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    19. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes & Pedro André Cerqueira, 2017. "Growth adjustments through non-price competitiveness and productivity. A cumulative causation approach," CeBER Working Papers 2017-01, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    20. Soukiazis, Elias & Cerqueira, Pedro André & Antunes, Micaela, 2014. "Explaining Italy's economic growth: A balance-of-payments approach with internal and external imbalances and non-neutral relative prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 334-341.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    internal and external imbalances; import elasticities of the components of demand; equilibrium growth rates; 3SLS system regressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:3:y:2015:i:4:p491-516. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Phillip Thompson (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elgaronline.com/roke .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.