IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eip/journl/y2016i4p7-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ukraine's fiscal adjustment in European context

Author

Listed:
  • T. Bogdan

Abstract

This paper examines fiscal stance in the EU as controversial issues for economic research and policy debates; it also investigates the underlying fiscal and debt positions of Ukraine's government as a legacy of global crisis and the outcome of country specific economic problems. Author calculates the cyclically adjusted fiscal balance of Ukraine and provides evidence of a highly pro-cyclical and restrictive fiscal policy since 2014. Ukraine is proved to be a "champion" in recent international rank of countries with largest cyclically adjusted primary surpluses. Author assesses Ukraine's fiscal consolidation package from the point of view of its compatibility with economic growth and social equity targets and distinguishes beneficial and harmful for economic growth fiscal policy instruments in Ukraine. The paper highlights factors affecting the size of fiscal multipliers and computes the short-term and medium-term multipliers in Ukraine, which proved to be 0.4 and 1.3, respectively. Next, the impact of fiscal adjustment on output has been estimated to be as high as a 8.9% fall in real GDP over the medium-term. On the basis of qualitative conclusions and quantitative estimates thereby derived, author draws policy recommendations which cover a mix of fiscal consolidation instruments, a pace of fiscal adjustment, the tools for government debt management, as well as a design and enforcement of the fiscal rules.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Bogdan, 2016. "Ukraine's fiscal adjustment in European context," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 4, pages 7-24.
  • Handle: RePEc:eip:journl:y:2016:i:4:p:7-24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eip.org.ua/docs/EP_16_4_07_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence M. Ball & Davide Furceri & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2013. "The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 2013/151, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Cottarelli, Carlo & Gerson, Philip & Senhadji, Abdelhak (ed.), 2014. "Post-crisis Fiscal Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262027186, December.
    3. Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Ksenia Koloskova, 2014. "Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions," IMF Working Papers 2014/213, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    6. Aart Kraay, 2012. "How large is the Government Spending Multiplier? Evidence from World Bank Lending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 829-887.
    7. Nicoletta Batini & Mr. Luc Eyraud & Miss Anke Weber, 2014. "A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 2014/093, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. Luc Eyraud & Miss Anke Weber, 2013. "The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 2013/067, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Ms. Anja Baum & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Miss Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 2012/286, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ms. Pritha Mitra & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers in Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 2015/071, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mr. Marcello M. Estevão & Issouf Samaké, 2013. "The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback," IMF Working Papers 2013/136, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Holland, Marcio & Marçal, Emerson & de Prince, Diogo, 2020. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 40-52.
    2. Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, April.
    3. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Koloskova, Ksenia & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted economic contractions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 35-52.
    4. Hory, Marie-Pierre, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in Emerging Market Economies: Can we learn something from Advanced Economies?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 59-84.
    5. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
    6. Ianc, Nicolae-Bogdan & Turcu, Camelia, 2020. "So alike, yet so different: Comparing fiscal multipliers across EU members and candidates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 278-298.
    7. Kumwenda, Thomson Nelson, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Evidence on Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Malawi," Dynare Working Papers 73, CEPREMAP.
    8. Syed Kamran Abbas NAQVI* & Syed Faizan IFTIKHAR** & Asghar ALI**, 2019. "The Value of Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Characteristics of Countries," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 29(2), pages 291-311.
    9. Cem Çebi & K.Azim Özdemir, 2021. "Cyclical variation of the fiscal multiplier in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(2), pages 495-509, January.
    10. Felix Reichling & Charles Whalen, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United States: Working Paper 2015-02," Working Papers 49925, Congressional Budget Office.
    11. György Molnár & Gábor Dániel Soós & Balázs Világi, 2017. "Fiscal Policy and the Business Cycle," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(4), pages 58-85.
    12. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Green Recovery Programmes. Conceptual Framing and a Review of the Empirical Literature," WIFO Working Papers 646, WIFO.
    13. Maria Elkhdari & Moez Souissi & Mr. Andrew Jewell, 2018. "Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria," IMF Working Papers 2018/124, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Charles J. Whalen & Felix Reichling, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier And Economic Policy Analysis In The United States," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 735-746, October.
    15. Sonya Georgieva, 2021. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria and Central and Eastern Europe Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 131-167.
    16. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Mr. Antonio David & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2018/142, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Alexis Habiyaremye & Olebogeng Molewa & Pelontle Lekomanyane, 2022. "Estimating Employment Gains of the Proposed Infrastructure Stimulus Plan in Post-Covid-19 South Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(1), pages 540-567, February.
    18. Mr. Marcello M. Estevão & Issouf Samaké, 2013. "The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback," IMF Working Papers 2013/136, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Nicolae-Bogdan Ianc & Camelia Turcu, 2019. "So alike, yet so different: comparing fiscal multipliers across E(M)U candidates," Working Papers 2019.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    20. Patrick Blagrave & Giang Ho & Ksenia Koloskova & Mr. Esteban Vesperoni, 2017. "Fiscal Spillovers: The Importance of Macroeconomic and Policy Conditions in Transmission," IMF Spillover Notes 2017/002, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eip:journl:y:2016:i:4:p:7-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iryna Bazhal (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://eip.org.ua/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.