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Ukraine's fiscal adjustment in European context

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  • T. Bogdan

Abstract

This paper examines fiscal stance in the EU as controversial issues for economic research and policy debates; it also investigates the underlying fiscal and debt positions of Ukraine's government as a legacy of global crisis and the outcome of country specific economic problems. Author calculates the cyclically adjusted fiscal balance of Ukraine and provides evidence of a highly pro-cyclical and restrictive fiscal policy since 2014. Ukraine is proved to be a "champion" in recent international rank of countries with largest cyclically adjusted primary surpluses. Author assesses Ukraine's fiscal consolidation package from the point of view of its compatibility with economic growth and social equity targets and distinguishes beneficial and harmful for economic growth fiscal policy instruments in Ukraine. The paper highlights factors affecting the size of fiscal multipliers and computes the short-term and medium-term multipliers in Ukraine, which proved to be 0.4 and 1.3, respectively. Next, the impact of fiscal adjustment on output has been estimated to be as high as a 8.9% fall in real GDP over the medium-term. On the basis of qualitative conclusions and quantitative estimates thereby derived, author draws policy recommendations which cover a mix of fiscal consolidation instruments, a pace of fiscal adjustment, the tools for government debt management, as well as a design and enforcement of the fiscal rules.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Bogdan, 2016. "Ukraine's fiscal adjustment in European context," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 4, pages 7-24.
  • Handle: RePEc:eip:journl:y:2016:i:4:p:7-24
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    File URL: http://eip.org.ua/docs/EP_16_4_07_en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcello M. Estevão & Issouf Samaké, 2013. "The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback," IMF Working Papers 13/136, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Nicoletta Batini & Luc Eyraud & Anke Weber, 2014. "A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 14/93, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Laurence M. Ball & Davide Furceri & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, 2013. "The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 13/151, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    5. Aart Kraay, 2012. "How large is the Government Spending Multiplier? Evidence from World Bank Lending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 829-887.
    6. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Ksenia Koloskova, 2014. "Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions," IMF Working Papers 14/213, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Anja Baum & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/286, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Luc Eyraud & Anke Weber, 2013. "The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 13/67, International Monetary Fund.
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