IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wodepe/v30y2023ics2452292923000206.html

The history of hunger: Counting calories to make global food security legible

Author

Listed:
  • Iversen, Thor Olav
  • Westengen, Ola T.
  • Jerven, Morten

Abstract

The Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU) is one of the most central indicators informing the international development agenda. Reported annually by the Rome-based UN agencies in their flagship report The State of Food Insecurity in the World, it is generally considered an authoritative statistic on world hunger. Based on archival research, this article chronicles and analyzes the development of its statistical model and the political and historical context of its revisions. We show that revisions to the PoU model have led to substantial changes in the estimates of the indicator and that this has underpinned shifting policy narratives and trends in the fight against hunger. Major changes in the statistical model inverted the PoU’s trend lines towards the end of the Millennium Development Goals period. In 2020, the year after China’s candidate became Director General of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the UN organization accessed new historical datasets from China and dramatically reduced PoU estimates for the country and consequently also the global figures. A number of ad-hoc revisions have been made to render food security crises - associated with inflation, economic recession, and the Covid-19 pandemic - legible. The indicator has thus been shaped by the political and economic structures within which FAO is situated, serving as an important tool to legitimize shifting ambitions and strategies of the post-World War II development agenda. At the same time, the lack of access to national household survey data from the countries with the highest measured undernutrition makes the PoU estimates fundamentally uncertain. At a technical level, this study highlights the need for greater transparency in the data and modelling basis for the PoU. The entanglement of technical and political factors illustrates the necessity of critical research on food insecurity quantification. More multifaceted approaches to measure food insecurity are needed.

Suggested Citation

  • Iversen, Thor Olav & Westengen, Ola T. & Jerven, Morten, 2023. "The history of hunger: Counting calories to make global food security legible," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wodepe:v:30:y:2023:i:c:s2452292923000206
    DOI: 10.1016/j.wdp.2023.100504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2452292923000206
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.wdp.2023.100504?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dudley Seers, 1959. "An Approach To The Short-Period Analysis Of Primary-Producingeconomies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 1-36.
    2. Thor Olav Iversen & Ola Westengen & Morten Jerven, 2023. "Measuring the end of hunger: Knowledge politics in the selection of SDG food security indicators," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 40(3), pages 1273-1286, September.
    3. Marcus Taylor & Remy Bargout & Suhas Bhasme, 2021. "Situating Political Agronomy: The Knowledge Politics of Hybrid Rice in India and Uganda," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 52(1), pages 168-191, January.
    4. Sakiko Fukuda-Parr & Amy Orr, 2014. "The MDG Hunger Target and the Competing Frameworks of Food Security," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2-3), pages 147-160, July.
    5. Lance L P GORE, 2019. "A Watershed Year: Chinese Foreign Policy in 2018," East Asian Policy (EAP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 44-58, January.
    6. Clapp, Jennifer & Moseley, William G. & Burlingame, Barbara & Termine, Paola, 2022. "Viewpoint: The case for a six-dimensional food security framework," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    7. Leach, Melissa & Nisbett, Nicholas & Cabral, Lídia & Harris, Jody & Hossain, Naomi & Thompson, John, 2020. "Food politics and development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Svedberg, Peter, 2002. "Undernutrition Overestimated," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 5-36, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Baffes, John & Nagle, Peter & Streifel, Shane S., 2026. "Policy Lessons from International Commodity Agreements : Failure of Non-Oil Pacts and the Endurance of OPEC," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11340, The World Bank.
    2. Florent Bédécarrats & Flore Dazet & Isabelle Guérin & Mireille Razafindrakoto & François Roubaud, 2023. "Tracking the Cost of Living, for Whom and at What Price?," Post-Print hal-04236884, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thor Olav Iversen & Ola Westengen & Morten Jerven, 2023. "Measuring the end of hunger: Knowledge politics in the selection of SDG food security indicators," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 40(3), pages 1273-1286, September.
    2. Kok, Kristiaan P.W. & Klerkx, Laurens, 2023. "Addressing the politics of mission-oriented agricultural innovation systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    3. Rizwan Ahmed, 2023. "Impact of Shortfall in Daily Wages on Food Insecurity Leading Towards Depression in Punjab's Urban Laborers During COVID-19," Magna Carta: Contemporary Social Science, 50sea, vol. 2(1), pages 44-54, March.
    4. Luis Cadavid & Vivek Arulnathan & Nathan Pelletier, 2024. "Food Security and Food Sovereignty: A Review of Commonly Used Indicators and Consideration of Environmental Sustainability Aspects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Thor Olav Iversen, 2023. "Boundary experts: Science and politics in measuring the Sustainable Development Goals," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(4), pages 600-610, September.
    6. Bazyli Czyżewski & Jakub Staniszewski & Joanna Staniszewska & Marta Guth, 2025. "Does Increasing Agricultural Efficiency Contribute to Food Security—Trade‐Offs of Value Addition in Crop Production?," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(S1), pages 939-970, November.
    7. Diane Kapgen & Laurence Roudart, 2023. "A Multidisciplinary Approach to Assess Smallholder Farmers' Adoption of New Technologies in Development Interventions," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 35(4), pages 974-995, August.
    8. Bühler, Dorothee & Hartje, Rebecca & Ulrike Grote, 2017. "Can household food security predict individual undernutrition? Evidence from Cambodia and Lao PDR," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-594, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    9. Manipushpak Mitra & Debapriya Sen, 2022. "A microeconomic analysis of subsistence," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 301-320, December.
    10. Clapp, Jennifer & Moseley, William G. & Termine, Paola & Burlingame, Barbara, 2025. "Multi-scalar policy uptake of the six-dimensional food security framework," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Mariusz Hamulczuk & Karolina Pawlak & Joanna Stefańczyk & Jarosław Gołębiewski, 2023. "Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    12. repec:ags:aaea22:345098 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sweta Tiwari, 2024. "Implications of India’s Act East Policy on the Food Systems and Cultural Heritage of the Konyak Nagas: A Case Study of Sustainable Subsistence and Capitalistic Rationalisation," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 80(2), pages 219-235, June.
    14. Mousumi Das & Ajay Sharma & Suresh Chandra Babu, 2018. "Pathways from agriculture-to-nutrition in India: implications for sustainable development goals," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(6), pages 1561-1576, December.
    15. Michels, Jacob & Zereyesus, Yacob & Beghin, John, 2024. "Increasing Sedentary Time, Minimum Dietary Energy Requirements, and Food Security Assessment," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 345098, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Rieger, Matthias & Wagner, Natascha, 2015. "Child health, its dynamic interaction with nutrition and health memory – Evidence from Senegal," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 135-145.
    17. Gökçe Koç & Ayşe Uzmay, 2024. "Construction of a Farm-Level Food Security Index: Case Study of Turkish Dairy Farms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 175(2), pages 687-714, November.
    18. Caroline Hambloch & Kai Mausch & Costanza Conti & Andy Hall, 2023. "Simple solutions for complex problems? What is missing in agriculture for nutrition interventions," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(2), pages 363-379, April.
    19. Carly Nichols & Halie Kampman & Mara Bold, 2022. "Forging just dietary futures: bringing mainstream and critical nutrition into conversation," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 39(2), pages 633-644, June.
    20. Obodai, Jacob & Bhagwat, Shonil & Mohan, Giles, 2024. "The interface of environment and human wellbeing: Exploring the impacts of gold mining on food security in Ghana," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    21. Wendy Geza & Mjabuliseni Simon Cloapas Ngidi & Rob Slotow & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, 2022. "The Dynamics of Youth Employment and Empowerment in Agriculture and Rural Development in South Africa: A Scoping Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wodepe:v:30:y:2023:i:c:s2452292923000206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/world-development-perspectives .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.