REDD+: The perfect marriage between conservation and development? A comparative study of the impacts of REDD+ on livelihoods and deforestation in Tanzania

This paper investigates the impacts of REDD+ in two pilot sites in the districts of Kilosa and Kondoa in Tanzania. We pose two questions: First: What are the impacts of REDD+ on social welfare? and second: What are the impacts of REDD+ on forest carbon storage? The study employs the Before-After/Control-Intervention research design and a mixed method approach to draw conclusions on REDD+ impacts. A theory-based evaluation is then used to understand the underlying causal mechanisms driving the observed changes. In estimating REDD+ impacts on income, we account for potential selection bias by matching pilot and control villages on factors likely to influence selection and outcomes and by using fixed effects panel data modelling. REDD+ impacts on forest carbon are measured using satellite imagery and ground truthing, combining data on the amount of forestland converted to other land uses, with information on how much carbon remains trapped in the forests after the land use changes. Results suggest that in terms of total income, REDD+ neither improves nor harms livelihoods in the two pilot areas. REDD+ however, increased forest income in the Kilosa pilot. REDD+ is also associated with increased forest carbon in both Kilosa and Kondoa. We discuss what could explain these seemingly contradictory developments. Three policy implications arise from the results 1) the need for REDD+ projects to involve NGOs/implementing partners that have a good understanding of local conditions, as local contexts play a central role in determining welfare and forest carbon outcomes 2) the importance of strengthening forest governance and management for facilitating a balance in livelihoods and forest cover improvements and 3) the significance of considering economic risk, safety nets and insurance against risk in the design of REDD+ projects, as a failure to do so, will lead to overexploitation of forests during periods of economic crisis.