Unraveling policy effects on airline networks in China: A temporal exponential random graph framework for slot control and route entry restrictions

Although extensive research has examined the impact of deregulation on the air transport market, relatively few studies have investigated how to advance further liberalization in markets still shaped by legacy regulatory policies. This study addresses that gap by focusing on China's domestic air transport market. Using a temporal exponential random graph model framework, we analyze the effects of regulatory policies on the evolution of airline networks. By incorporating both endogenous and exogenous effects, we analyze the differentiated impact of slot control policies and route entry restrictions across different types of carriers. Results show that slot control policies influence network development for all carrier categories, whereas route entry restrictions primarily constrain the network expansion of Network-expansion carriers. Moreover, these carriers encounter greater challenges when attempting to access slot-controlled airports than when navigating route entry barriers. The study concludes with policy recommendations to reduce these barriers to support more equitable and efficient network growth.