Analysis of the Driving Mechanism of Urban Carbon Emission Correlation Network in Shandong Province Based on TERGM

Analyzing the driving factors and mechanisms of urban carbon emission correlation networks can provide effective carbon reduction decision-making support for Shandong Province and other regions with similar industrial characteristics. Based on industrial carbon emission data from various cities in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2021, the spatial correlation network of carbon emission was established by using a modified gravity model. The characteristics of the network were explored by using the Social Network Analysis (SNA) method, and significant factors affecting the network were identified through Quadratic Assignment Procedure (QAP) correlation analysis and motif analysis. The driving mechanism of the carbon emission correlation network was analyzed by using Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TERGMs). The results show that: (1) The spatial correlation network of urban carbon emission in Shandong Province exhibits multi-threaded complex network correlations with a relatively stable structure, overcoming geographical distance limitations. (2) Qingdao, Jinan, and Rizhao have high degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality in the network, with Qingdao and Jinan being relatively central. (3) Shandong Province can be spatially clustered into four regions, each with distinct roles, displaying a certain “neighboring clustering” phenomenon. (4) Endogenous network structures such as Mutual, Ctriple, and Gwesp significantly impact the formation and evolution of the network, while Twopath does not show the expected impact; FDI can promote the generation of carbon emission reception relationships in the spatial correlation network; IR can promote the generation of carbon emission spillover relationships in the spatial correlation network; GS, differences in GDP, differences in EI, and similarities of IR can promote the generation of organic correlations within the network; on the temporal level, the spatial correlation network of urban carbon emission in Shandong Province has shown significant stability during the study period.