IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v171y2025icp428-439.html

How economic development impacts transportation safety: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Chan, Jian
  • Li, Qi
  • Shi, Tao

Abstract

Based on 31 inland provincial samples from 2002 to 2019 in China. This article adopted the GTWR model to analyze the impact of economic development in transportation safety with the potential path. The results can be concluded as follows: (1) China's road traffic accident is at a lower level with a downward trend, and the road traffic accident spatially decrease gradient from northeast to southwest and most regions are at the Lower-Lower cluster type regions showing a cluster effect. (2) The impact of economic development on the road traffic accident is positive before 2012 and negative after 2012 respectively with spatial heterogeneity characteristics. (3) The education level and market environment play negative moderating role in the impact of economic development on the road traffic accident. Finally, policy implications are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Chan, Jian & Li, Qi & Shi, Tao, 2025. "How economic development impacts transportation safety: Evidence from China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 428-439.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:171:y:2025:i:c:p:428-439
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X2500229X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shaw, Williams & Wang, Guangmin & Ampofo, Gideon Kwaku Minua & Befeke, Chenyi Larry & Botei, Diana, 2025. "An analysis of the symmetric and asymmetric relationship between road traffic casualties and economic development of Ghana," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Cai, Qing & Abdel-Aty, Mohamed & Sun, Yangyang & Lee, Jaeyoung & Yuan, Jinghui, 2019. "Applying a deep learning approach for transportation safety planning by using high-resolution transportation and land use data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 71-85.
    3. Youzhi Zeng & Yongkang Qiang & Ning Zhang & Xiaobao Yang & Zhenjun Zhao & Xiaoqiao Wang, 2024. "An Influencing Factors Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Minimum Discrimination Information Principle," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-23, August.
    4. Yang, Hongtai & Zhai, Guocong & Liu, Xiaohan & Yang, Linchuan & Liu, Yugang & Yuan, Quan, 2022. "Determinants of city-level private car ownership: Effect of vehicle regulation policies and the relative price," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 40-48.
    5. Narayanan, Santhanakrishnan & Gruber, Johannes & Liedtke, Gernot & Antoniou, Constantinos, 2022. "Purchase intention and actual purchase of cargo cycles: Influencing factors and policy insights," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 31-45.
    6. Mingwei Yan & Wentao Chen & Jianhao Wang & Mengmeng Zhang & Liang Zhao, 2021. "Characteristics and Causes of Particularly Major Road Traffic Accidents Involving Commercial Vehicles in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-18, April.
    7. Pulugurtha, Srinivas S. & Mathew, Sonu, 2021. "Modeling AADT on local functionally classified roads using land use, road density, and nearest nonlocal road data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Xue, Hong & Wu, Zezhou & Sun, Zhi & Jiao, Shuaishuai, 2021. "Effects of policy on developer's implementation of off-site construction: The mediating role of the market environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    9. David Bishai & Asma Quresh & Prashant James & Abdul Ghaffar, 2006. "National road casualties and economic development," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 65-81, January.
    10. Law, Teik Hua, 2015. "Factors associated with the relationship between non-fatal road injuries and economic growth," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 166-172.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Law, Teik Hua & Yang, Kun & Zhu, Tong & Jakarni, Fauzan Mohd, 2026. "Child road safety in Transition: How economic growth shapes fatality risks for pedestrians, cyclists, and Motorists," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 388(C).
    2. Anshul Sinha & Sanjay Kumar Singh & VijayLakshmi Singh, 2021. "Linkage Between Road Safety and Economic Development: A Case Study of India," Metamorphosis: A Journal of Management Research, , vol. 20(1), pages 7-15, June.
    3. Lin, Yi-Chen, 2016. "The global distribution of the burden of road traffic injuries: Evolution and intra-distribution mobility," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 77-91.
    4. Shaw, Williams & Wang, Guangmin & Ampofo, Gideon Kwaku Minua & Befeke, Chenyi Larry & Botei, Diana, 2025. "An analysis of the symmetric and asymmetric relationship between road traffic casualties and economic development of Ghana," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Zhi-Chun Li Author-Name : Wen-Jing Liu Author-Name : André de Palma, "undated". "Spatial heterogeneity in vehicle license plate lottery rationing," Thema Working Papers 2024-11, THEMA (Théorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), CY Cergy-Paris University, ESSEC and CNRS.
    6. Evangelos Rasvanis & Andreas Psarras & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2025. "(Why) Do Europeans Drive Differently?," Discussion Paper Series 2025_03, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Mar 2025.
    7. Grimm, M. & Treibich, C., 2010. "Socio-economic determinants of road traffic accident fatalities in low and middle income countries," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19841, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    8. Yueh-Tzu Lu & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2017. "Smeed fs Law and the Role of Hospitals in Modeling Fatalities and Traffic Accidents," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-22, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Ahmed Taruwere Yakubu & Ismail Aremu Muhammed, 2021. "Economic Condition And Road Transport Crashes In Nigeria: Evidence From State Level Data," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 8(2), pages 36-44.
    10. Narayanan, Santhanakrishnan & Antoniou, Constantinos, 2022. "Electric cargo cycles - A comprehensive review," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 278-303.
    11. Longhui Fu & Qibang Wang & Jianhui Li & Huiran Jin & Zhen Zhen & Qingbin Wei, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity and the Key Influencing Factors of PM 2.5 and PM 10 in Heilongjiang, China from 2014 to 2018," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-20, September.
    12. Sotiris Vandoros & Georgios Kavetsos & Paul Dolan, 2014. "Greasy Roads: The Impact of Bad Financial News on Road Traffic Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(3), pages 556-566, March.
    13. Liying Wang & Junya Wang & Pengxia Shen & Shangqing Liu & Shuwei Zhang, 2023. "Low-Carbon Travel Behavior in Daily Residence and Tourism Destination: Based on TPB-ABC Integrated Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-18, September.
    14. Hélène Laurent & Marc Sangnier & Carole Treibich, 2021. "Traffic safety and norms of compliance with rules: An exploratory study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(4), pages 2464-2483.
    15. Castro-Nuño, Mercedes & Arévalo-Quijada, M. Teresa, 2018. "Assessing urban road safety through multidimensional indexes: Application of multicriteria decision making analysis to rank the Spanish provinces," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 118-129.
    16. Matthew G. Nagler, 2013. "Does Social Capital Promote Safety On The Roads?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 1218-1231, April.
    17. Sirajudeen, Abdurrasheed Olayinka & Law, Teik Hua & Wong, Shaw Voon & Ng, Choy Peng, 2025. "Examining the effect of relative improvements in road mobility versus accessibility on the fatality-to-injury ratio: Insights from income as an intermediate variable," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 262-272.
    18. Yueh-Tzu Lu & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2019. "Smeed’s law and the role of hospitals in modeling traffic accidents and fatalities in Japan," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 319-332, June.
    19. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Castro-Nuño, Mercedes & Pedregal, Diego J., 2014. "The trend towards convergence in road accident fatality rates in Europe: The contributions of non-economic variables," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 229-240.
    20. Narayanan, Santhanakrishnan & Antoniou, Constantinos, 2022. "Expansion of a small-scale car-sharing service: A multi-method framework for demand characterization and derivation of policy insights," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:171:y:2025:i:c:p:428-439. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.