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Optimal tanker chartering decisions with spot freight rate dynamics considerations

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, He
  • Huang, Simin
  • Liu, Zhen
  • Zheng, Li

Abstract

We study a tanker chartering decision problem faced by refinery companies. The decision process is formulated as an optimal stopping problem with geometric Brownian motion for the spot freight rate dynamics and a Poisson type arrival process for the tankers. We show the problem can be solved efficiently by partial differential equations. The study, for the first time, provides innovative techniques for modeling freight rate uncertainty facing refinery companies. An application of the model to a refinery company in China shows the benefit of our method compared to the company’s current tanker-chartering strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, He & Huang, Simin & Liu, Zhen & Zheng, Li, 2013. "Optimal tanker chartering decisions with spot freight rate dynamics considerations," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 109-116.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:51:y:2013:i:c:p:109-116
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2012.12.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boyle, Phelim & Broadie, Mark & Glasserman, Paul, 1997. "Monte Carlo methods for security pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1267-1321, June.
    2. Al Wood, 2011. "Tanker Ownership in non-OECD countries and the Rise of Government-Owned Fleets," Working Papers 2011-07, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    3. Alberto Behar & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Transport Costs and International Trade," Chapters,in: A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 5 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Dai, Min & Kwok, Yue Kuen & You, Hong, 2007. "Intensity-based framework and penalty formulation of optimal stopping problems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3860-3880, December.
    5. Adland, Roar & Cullinane, Kevin, 2006. "The non-linear dynamics of spot freight rates in tanker markets," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 211-224, May.
    6. Koekebakker, Steen & Adland, Roar & Sødal, Sigbjørn, 2007. "Pricing freight rate options," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 535-548, September.
    7. S. D. Jacka, 1991. "Optimal Stopping and the American Put," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 1-14.
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