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An aggregate demand model for air passenger traffic in the hub-and-spoke network

  • Wei, Wenbin
  • Hansen, Mark
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    In this paper, we build an aggregate demand model for air passenger traffic in a hub-and-spoke network. This model considers the roles of airline service variables such as service frequency, aircraft size, ticket price, flight distance, and number of spokes in the network. It also takes into account the influence of local passengers and social-economic and demographic conditions in the spoke and hub metropolitan areas. The hub airport capacity, which has a significant impact on service quality in the hub airport and in the whole hub-and-spoke network, is also taken into consideration. Our demand model reveals that airlines can attract more connecting passengers in a hub-and-spoke network by increasing service frequency than by increasing aircraft size in the same percentage. Our research confirms the importance of local service to connecting passengers, and finds that, interestingly, airlines' services in the first flight leg are more important to attract passengers than those in the second flight segment. Based on data in this study, we also find that a 1% reduction of ticket price will bring about 0.9% more connecting passengers, and a 1% increase of airport acceptance rate can bring about 0.35% more connecting passengers in the network, with all else equal. These findings are helpful for airlines to understand the effects of changing their services, and also useful for us to quantify the benefits of hub airport expansion projects. At the end of this paper, we give an example as an application to demonstrate how the developed demand model could be used to valuate passengers' direct benefit from airport capacity expansion.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 10 (December)
    Pages: 841-851

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:40:y:2006:i:10:p:841-851
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    1. Victor D. Norman & Siri Strandenes, 1994. "Deregulation of Scandinavian Airlines: A Case Study of the Oslo-Stockholm Route," NBER Chapters, in: Empirical Studies of Strategic Trade Policy, pages 85-100 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Adler, Nicole, 2001. "Competition in a deregulated air transportation market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 337-345, March.
    3. Pels, Eric & Nijkamp, Peter & Rietveld, Piet, 2000. "Airport and Airline Competition for Passengers Departing from a Large Metropolitan Area," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 29-45, July.
    4. Hansen, Mark M. & Gosling, Geoffrey D. & Margulici, Jean-David & Wei, Wen-Bin, 2001. "Influence of Capacity Constraints on Airline Fleet Mix," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt965114nc, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    5. Hansen, Mark, 1990. "Airline competition in a hub-dominated environment: An application of noncooperative game theory," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 27-43, February.
    6. Hsu, Chaug-Ing & Wen, Yuh-Horng, 2003. "Determining flight frequencies on an airline network with demand-supply interactions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 417-441, November.
    7. Fridström, Lasse & Thune-Larsen, Harald, 1989. "An econometric air travel demand model for the entire conventional domestic network: The case of Norway," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 213-223, June.
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