IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v192y2025ics0965856424004178.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysing the role of traffic volume as mediator in transport policy evaluation with causal mediation analysis and targeted learning

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Yingheng
  • Li, Haojie
  • Ren, Gang

Abstract

Traffic volume has often been analysed as the outcome of interest in transport policy evaluation. However, its role as mediator lying in the causal pathways between policies and other outcomes has rarely been explored. We investigate this issue by using a targeted learning-based causal mediation analysis approach. Compared to the traditional approach that has been used in transport research, namely the Baron-Kenny multiple-regression approach, the causal one incorporating potential outcomes has clearer causal definitions and interpretations. Also, targeted learning has higher functional flexibility by enabling the use of supervised learning algorithms. Simulations indicate that targeted learning outperforms the traditional approach in complex settings with nonlinearities and interactions. We present an empirical example, quantifying the direct effect of the London Cycle Superhighways (LCS) on traffic speed, and the indirect effect via traffic volume as mediator. Our results indicate that the installation of LCS has reduced motor traffic along the routes. The average causal effect on annual average daily traffic (AADT) relative to the AADT in the pre-intervention period is − 9.2 %. Regarding the direct and indirect effects, we find that LCS has a negative direct effect on traffic speed, which might be due to less space available for motor vehicles, while LCS can increase traffic speed via reducing the amount of motor traffic. The direct effect on traffic speed relative to the speed in the pre-intervention period is − 2.0 %, whereas the indirect effect is + 1.3 %. As a result, the total causal effect on speed is small.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yingheng & Li, Haojie & Ren, Gang, 2025. "Analysing the role of traffic volume as mediator in transport policy evaluation with causal mediation analysis and targeted learning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:192:y:2025:i:c:s0965856424004178
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104369
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856424004178
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2024.104369?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:192:y:2025:i:c:s0965856424004178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.