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Exploring the coupling and forecasting of financial development, technological innovation, and economic growth

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  • Wang, Rong
  • Tan, Junlan

Abstract

This paper used the entropy and gray forecasting methods to estimate the coupling and forecasting of financial development, technological innovation, and economic growth in China. Initially, we developed an index system; following this, the gray forecasting method was employed to forecast the trend from 2019 to 2024. Findings indicate that the coupling degree was on the rise, and the regional differences were large. The highest coupling degree in eastern China reached the running-in stage in 2019, while in central and western China it was lower; meanwhile, it was in the antagonistic stage for a long time. Similarly, the lower coupling was more obvious. Secondly, the coupling coordination degree also increased, and the regional differences were large. Thirdly, GM (1, 1) gray prediction found that the coupling degree would steadily increase from 2019 to 2024, and would enter the running-in stage in 2022, while the coupling coordination degree would enter the extreme coordination stage in 2024. The synergistic development effect is expected to improve. However, coupling growth during the run-in period was significantly lower than coupling coordination. The coordinated development will still take a long time, and proactive policies should be adopted to achieve coordinated development.

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  • Wang, Rong & Tan, Junlan, 2021. "Exploring the coupling and forecasting of financial development, technological innovation, and economic growth," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:163:y:2021:i:c:s0040162520312920
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120466
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