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Investor sentiment and calendar anomaly effects: A case study of the impact of Ramadan on Islamic Middle Eastern markets


  • Al-Hajieh, Heitham
  • Redhead, Keith
  • Rodgers, Timothy


The holy month of Ramadan is usually a time of celebration and renewal in Muslim countries. This paper examines whether or not this is reflected in positive calendar anomalies effects in Islamic Middle Eastern stock markets during the period 1992-2007. Strong evidence is found of significant and positive calendar effects in respect to the whole period of Ramadan in most countries and it is argued that this can be attributed to the generally positive investor mood, or sentiment. Although Ramadan is a time of celebration for Muslims it also can be a time of uncertainty and this appears to result in the impact of the festival not being uniformly positive throughout Ramadan. It is found that market returns in the first and last days of Ramadan show high levels of statistically significant year-on-year variation. It is argued that this can possibly be attributed to synchronization-related herding effects amplifying the impact of the mood swings associated with this period. The paper also finds that although the overall Ramadan effect is both positive and statistically significant for most countries, the associated gains were only large enough to outweigh transactions costs and provide the basis of a profitable trading strategy in one market.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-Hajieh, Heitham & Redhead, Keith & Rodgers, Timothy, 2011. "Investor sentiment and calendar anomaly effects: A case study of the impact of Ramadan on Islamic Middle Eastern markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 345-356, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:25:y:2011:i:3:p:345-356

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Chiang, Shu-Mei & Lee, Yen-Hsien & Su, Hsin-Mei & Tzou, Yi-Pin, 2010. "Efficiency tests of foreign exchange markets for four Asian Countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 284-294, September.
    5. Fifield, Suzanne G.M. & Jetty, Juliana, 2008. "Further evidence on the efficiency of the Chinese stock markets: A note," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 351-361, September.
    6. Wright, William F. & Bower, Gordon H., 1992. "Mood effects on subjective probability assessment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 276-291, July.
    7. Li, Hong & Majerowska, Ewa, 2008. "Testing stock market linkages for Poland and Hungary: A multivariate GARCH approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 247-266, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abbes, Mouna Boujelbène & Abdelhédi-Zouch, Mouna, 2015. "Does hajj pilgrimage affect the Islamic investor sentiment?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 138-152.
    2. Ender Demir, 2015. "Aviation Accidents and Stock Market Reaction: Evidence from Borsa Istanbul," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 3(1), pages 51-56.
    3. Heitham Al-Hajieh & Hashem AlNemer & Timothy Rodgers & Jacek Niklewski, 2015. "Forecasting the Jordanian stock index: modelling asymmetric volatility and distribution effects within a GARCH framework," Copernican Journal of Finance & Accounting, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 4(2), pages 9-26.
    4. Dorsaf Ben Aissia, 2016. "Developments in non-expected utility theories: an empirical study of risk aversion," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(2), pages 299-318, April.
    5. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Tsalavoutas, Ioannis, 2016. "Investor mood, herding and the Ramadan effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 23-38.
    6. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2015. "Positive mood and investment decisions: Evidence from comedy movie attendance in the U.S," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 142-163.
    7. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:233-241 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Gajdka, Jerzy & Kutan, Ali M., 2015. "Investor response to public news, sentiment and institutional trading in emerging markets: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-352.
    9. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T. & Kaufmann, Philipp & Wisniewski, Tomasz P., 2013. "Do mutual fund managers exploit the Ramadan anomaly? Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 211-232.
    10. Halari, Anwar & Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Power, David. M. & Helliar, Christine, 2015. "Islamic calendar anomalies: Evidence from Pakistani firm-level data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 64-73.
    11. Magnone, Edoardo, 2013. "A scientometric look at calendar events," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 101-108.
    12. Mazouz, Khelifa & Mohamed, Abdulkadir & Saadouni, Brahim, 2016. "Stock return comovement around the Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index revisions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 50-62.
    13. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:172-189 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Al-Khazali, Osamah, 2014. "Revisiting fast profit investor sentiment and stock returns during Ramadan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 158-170.


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