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Digital inclusive financial and household fertility:Discoveries based on dual machine learning algorithm

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  • Xie, Yan
  • Guo, Jingjun
  • Ma, Xiaowen

Abstract

The continuous decline in fertility rates and the postponement of childbirth represent significant social issues in China. Utilizing data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) spanning 2013 to 2019, this paper employs a dual machine learning algorithm (DML) to estimate the causal effects of digital inclusive finance (DIF) on family size and the age at first childbirth, while also exploring the underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that DIF has a modest positive impact on the household fertility rate and a notable negative effect on the age at first childbirth. Specifically, DIF has contributed to a slight increase in the number of births by reducing the opportunity cost of childbirth for households and has significantly lowered the age of first childbirth by mitigating income fluctuations. Given its positive effects, DIF should be actively promoted.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Yan & Guo, Jingjun & Ma, Xiaowen, 2025. "Digital inclusive financial and household fertility:Discoveries based on dual machine learning algorithm," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:97:y:2025:i:c:s1059056024007391
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103747
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guan, Lijie & Xue, Ying, 2025. "Digital financial inclusion and corporate green innovation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PC).
    2. Zeng, Yuan & Yang, Yusen & Wang, Chun & Zou, Jianke, 2025. "Exploring the digital divide–poverty link: Roles of education and family dependency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PC).
    3. Shilong Xi & Xiaohui Wang & Kejun Lin, 2025. "The Impact of Carbon Emissions Trading Pilot Policies on High-Quality Agricultural Development: An Empirical Assessment Using Double Machine Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-28, February.
    4. Chen, Junshi & Chi, Jing & Smith, David & Yuen, Mui Kuen, 2025. "How does digital finance impact birth rates: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1945-1965.
    5. Xie, Junming, 2025. "Banking evolution in the digital age: How digital financial inclusion induces systematic financial risk?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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