IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v63y2019icp128-137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Political connection and stock returns: Evidence from party alternation in Taiwan

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Jen-Sin
  • Yen, Pi-Hsia
  • Lee, Liang-Chien

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of political connections in terms of party alternation on stock returns in Taiwan. It considers two major political parties namely: Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which compete for presidency every four years and acquired the power during the 2008 and 2016 election, alternately. Taiwan's stock market is export-oriented and considered as one of the major trade partner of China. KMT strongly advocates the importance of the Chinese market while DPP views it in opposite position. This study conjectures that different perspectives of these political parties will affect the existing trade treaties and reflect on the stock market performance. We compare the export rate effect to firms during the leadership of KMT and DPP. Our study reveals that export rate is positively related on stock returns when KMT won the president election. The effect is stronger to firms with high export rate and connected to KMT than firms with low export rate and connected to DPP. This study shows a negative effect on stock returns when DPP won the president election. This result is contrast to the previous study on the impact of PC on stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Jen-Sin & Yen, Pi-Hsia & Lee, Liang-Chien, 2019. "Political connection and stock returns: Evidence from party alternation in Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-137.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:63:y:2019:i:c:p:128-137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2018.08.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056018304143
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2018.08.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Ferguson & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2008. "Betting on Hitler—The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 101-137.
    2. Knight*, Brian, 2007. "Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 389-409, February.
    3. Claessens, Stijn & Feijen, Erik & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Political connections and preferential access to finance: The role of campaign contributions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 554-580, June.
    4. Jou, Rosemary & Chen, Shi & Tsai, Jeng-Yan, 2017. "Politically connected lending, government capital injection, and bank performance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 220-232.
    5. Nianhang Xu & Xinzhong Xu & Qingbo Yuan, 2013. "Political Connections, Financing Friction, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Chinese Listed Family Firms," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(4), pages 675-702, September.
    6. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    7. Imai, Masami & Shelton, Cameron A., 2011. "Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 837-849.
    8. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    9. Dang, Vinh Q.T. & So, Erin P.K. & Yan, Isabel K.M., 2018. "The value of political connection: Evidence from the 2011 Egyptian revolution," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 238-257.
    10. Knight*, Brian, 2007. "Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 389-409, February.
    11. Lin, Chih-Yung & Ho, Po-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua & Wang, Yu-Chun, 2016. "Political connection, government policy, and investor trading: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 153-166.
    12. Ye Liu & Xindan Li & Haijian Zeng & Yunbi An, 2017. "Political connections, auditor choice and corporate accounting transparency: evidence from private sector firms in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(4), pages 1071-1099, December.
    13. Belo, Frederico & Gala, Vito D. & Li, Jun, 2013. "Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 305-324.
    14. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    15. Eitan Goldman & Jörg Rocholl & Jongil So, 2009. "Do Politically Connected Boards Affect Firm Value?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2331-2360, June.
    16. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Alexei V. Ovtchinnikov, 2010. "Corporate Political Contributions and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 687-724, April.
    17. MARA FACCIO & RONALD W. MASULIS & JOHN J. McCONNELL, 2006. "Political Connections and Corporate Bailouts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2597-2635, December.
    18. Faccio, Mara & Parsley, David C., 2009. "Sudden Deaths: Taking Stock of Geographic Ties," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 683-718, June.
    19. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    20. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Chih-Yung, 2015. "Betting on presidential elections: Should we buy stocks connected with the winning party?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 98-109.
    21. Chen, Carl R. & Li, Yingqi & Luo, Danglun & Zhang, Ting, 2017. "Helping hands or grabbing hands? An analysis of political connections and firm value," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 71-89.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amin, Qazi Awais & Cumming, Douglas, 2023. "The politician as a CEO, corporate governance and firm value," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    2. Faraji, Omid & Kashanipour, Mohammad & MohammadRezaei, Fakhroddin & Ahmed, Kamran & Vatanparast, Nader, 2020. "Political connections, political cycles and stock returns: Evidence from Iran," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin, Chih-Yung & Ho, Po-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua & Wang, Yu-Chun, 2016. "Political connection, government policy, and investor trading: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 153-166.
    2. Shen, Chung-Hua & Bui, Dien Giau & Lin, Chih-Yung, 2017. "Do political factors affect stock returns during presidential elections?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 180-198.
    3. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
    4. Chung-Hua Shen & Chih-Yung Lin, 2016. "Political connections, financial constraints, and corporate investment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 343-368, August.
    5. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Chih-Yung, 2015. "Betting on presidential elections: Should we buy stocks connected with the winning party?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 98-109.
    6. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
    7. Su, Zhong-qin & Xiao, Zuoping & Yu, Lin, 2019. "Do political connections enhance or impede corporate innovation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 94-110.
    8. Wang, Fangjun & Xu, Luying & Zhang, Junrui & Shu, Wei, 2018. "Political connections, internal control and firm value: Evidence from China's anti-corruption campaign," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 53-67.
    9. Feng, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C. & Zhang, Tianyu, 2015. "Mixing business with politics: Political participation by entrepreneurs in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 220-235.
    10. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen, 2013. "Political Connections and Firm Value: Evidence from the Regression Discontinuity Design of Close Gubernatorial Elections," Working Papers hal-03460972, HAL.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/65rged1j6o9gl9jvp8a09o3eue is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen, 2013. "Political Connections and Firm Value: Evidence from the Regression Discontinuity Design of Close Gubernatorial Elections," Working Papers hal-03460972, HAL.
    13. Bo Liu & Kemin Wang, 2019. "Uncertainty of political subsidy, heterogeneous beliefs, and IPO anomalies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 923-951, May.
    14. Luechinger, Simon & Moser, Christoph, 2014. "The value of the revolving door: Political appointees and the stock market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 93-107.
    15. Brown, Jeffrey R. & Huang, Jiekun, 2020. "All the president's friends: Political access and firm value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 415-431.
    16. Thomas Bourveau & Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2021. "Political Connections and White-Collar Crime: Evidence from Insider Trading in France," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(5), pages 2543-2576.
    17. Lehrer, Nimrod David, 2018. "The value of political connections in a multiparty parliamentary democracy: Evidence from the 2015 elections in Israel," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 13-58.
    18. Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Mazouz, Khelifa & Wood, Geoffrey, 2021. "The consequences of political donations for IPO premium and performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n0dcia0po is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Kim, Chansog (Francis) & Pantzalis, Christos & Chul Park, Jung, 2012. "Political geography and stock returns: The value and risk implications of proximity to political power," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 196-228.
    21. Barraza, Santiago & Rossi, Martín A & Ruzzier, Christian A, 2022. "Sleeping with the enemy: The perils of having the government on(the)board," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 641-651.
    22. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n0dcia0po is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Ahmed Tahoun & Laurence van Lent, 2016. "The Personal Wealth Interests of Politicians and the Stabilization of Financial Markets," Working Papers Series 52, Institute for New Economic Thinking.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:63:y:2019:i:c:p:128-137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.