Do realized betas exhibit up/down market tendencies?
In this paper we employ the STAR (smooth transition autoregressive) model to investigate potential nonlinearities, cyclical behaviour and duration dependence in the realized monthly betas of 39 US industry portfolios. Tests reject linearity for all but eight industries. The estimated nonlinear models suggest that industry betas are characterised by asymmetric cycles, with the speed of transition between the bull and bear market regimes being relatively slow for seven industries. We find duration dependence in industry betas since the probability of transition between regimes does depend on how long the market has been in an up or a down state.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
- Shyh-Wei Chen & Chung-Hua Shen, 2007. "Evidence of the duration-dependence from the stock markets in the Pacific Rim economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1461-1474.
- Pettengill, Glenn N. & Sundaram, Sridhar & Mathur, Ike, 1995. "The Conditional Relation between Beta and Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 101-116, March.
- Woodward, George & Marisetty, Vijaya B., 2005. "Introducing non-linear dynamics to the two-regime market model: Evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 559-581, September.
- Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004.
"Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
- Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1216, Econometric Society.
- Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
- Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
- Ho-Chuan Huang, 2000. "Tests of regimes - switching CAPM," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 573-578.
- Estrada, Javier, 2007. "Mean-semivariance behavior: Downside risk and capital asset pricing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 169-185.
- Gonzalez, Liliana & Powell, John G. & Shi, Jing & Wilson, Antony, 2005. "Two centuries of bull and bear market cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 469-486.
- Huang, Ho-Chuan (River), 2003. "Tests of regime-switching CAPM under price limits," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 305-326.
- Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
- Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
- J. David Spiceland & Jerry E. Trapnell, 1983. "The Effect Of Market Conditions And Risk Classifications On Market Model Parameters," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 6(3), pages 217-222, September.
- Fabozzi, Frank J & Francis, Jack C, 1979. "Mutual Fund Systematic Risk for Bull and Bear Markets: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(5), pages 1243-1250, December.
- Chi-Young Choi & Young-Kyu Moh, 2007. "How useful are tests for unit-root in distinguishing unit-root processes from stationary but non-linear processes?," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(1), pages 82-112, March.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
- Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2004. "Asian real interest rates, nonlinear dynamics, and international parity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-405.
- Fabozzi, Frank J & Francis, Jack Clark, 1977. "Stability Tests for Alphas and Betas over Bull and Bear Market Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1093-1099, September.
- Bhardwaj, Ravinder K & Brooks, LeRoy D, 1993. "Dual Betas from Bull and Bear Markets: Reversal of the Size Effect," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 16(4), pages 269-283, Winter.
- Ping-Huang Chou & Huimin Chung & Erh-Yin Sun, 2005. "Detecting mutual fund timing ability using the threshold model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(13), pages 829-834. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:18:y:2009:i:3:p:511-519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.