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Do realized betas exhibit up/down market tendencies?

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  • Woodward, George
  • Brooks, Robert

Abstract

In this paper we employ the STAR (smooth transition autoregressive) model to investigate potential nonlinearities, cyclical behaviour and duration dependence in the realized monthly betas of 39 US industry portfolios. Tests reject linearity for all but eight industries. The estimated nonlinear models suggest that industry betas are characterised by asymmetric cycles, with the speed of transition between the bull and bear market regimes being relatively slow for seven industries. We find duration dependence in industry betas since the probability of transition between regimes does depend on how long the market has been in an up or a down state.

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  • Woodward, George & Brooks, Robert, 2009. "Do realized betas exhibit up/down market tendencies?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 511-519, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:18:y:2009:i:3:p:511-519
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    3. Chien-Chung Nieh & Hsueh-Chu Yao, 2013. "Threshold effects in the capital asset pricing model using panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) Evidence from net oil export and import groups," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(2), pages 1-9.
    4. Pedro Antonio Martín-Cervantes & María del Carmen Valls Martínez, 2023. "Unraveling the relationship between betas and ESG scores through the Random Forests methodology," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-29, September.
    5. Mohammad, Nazeeruddin & Ashraf, Dawood, 2015. "The market timing ability and return performance of Islamic equities: An empirical study," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 169-183.
    6. Beach, Steven L., 2011. "Semivariance decomposition of country-level returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 607-623, October.

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