IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v103y2025ics1059056025006136.html

Exploration on the impact of low carbon pilot policies on rural industrial development under the background of “Dual-carbon” goals

Author

Listed:
  • Lu, Siqi
  • Huang, Siyuan
  • Zhao, Zilong

Abstract

Initiated in 2010 and implemented in three batches across selected provinces and cities, the low-carbon policy is a pivotal initiative in China dedicated to actualizing the “Dual-carbon” goal by cutting down upon greenhouse gas emissions, lessening industrial carbon output, and pushing ahead low-carbon development in urban and rural economies. This study explores how these strategies affect the efficiency of rural industrial development in pilot areas, which is directly correlated with rural revitalization and common prosperity. It puts forward several hypotheses with regard to the association between low-carbon pilot policies and TFP in rural industries, using panel data from 1674 county-level cities in China from 2001 to 2022. Although effects vary spatially on account of geographical and economic factors, the research deems that these policies noticeably enhance overall rural industry TFP, which can be validated when we treat low-carbon pilot policies as a quasi-natural experiment and employing a multi-period double difference method. The policies have a notable and positive impact in regions south of the Qinling Huaihe River, east of the Hu Huanyong line, and in resource-based western areas, highlighting the synergy between policy adaptability and regional endowments. Mechanism analysis reveals that inter-provincial policy collaboration enhances effectiveness through a “provincial-prefecture level” governance mechanism, which underscores the importance of multi-level policy linkage for improving rural green transformation efficiency. Nonetheless, the influence of low-carbon agricultural initiatives and carbon peak measures—both as structural components within certain regional low-carbon pilot policy implementations—demonstrates temporal variability, with the latter showing short-term inhistory effects on rural industry TFP, highlighting tensions between strict carbon constraints and rural economic growth objectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Siqi & Huang, Siyuan & Zhao, Zilong, 2025. "Exploration on the impact of low carbon pilot policies on rural industrial development under the background of “Dual-carbon” goals," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:103:y:2025:i:c:s1059056025006136
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104450
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056025006136
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2025.104450?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Ke & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Impact of energy conservation policies on the green productivity in China’s manufacturing sector: Evidence from a three-stage DEA model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 351-363.
    2. Huang, Siyuan & Lu, Siqi, 2024. "Did the 'Early harvest list' of commodity trade under ECFA promote the development of manufacturing industry in Taiwan Province? An empirical analysis based on staggered DID model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Hallegatte, Stephane & Heal, Geoffrey & Fay, Marianne & Treguer, David, 2011. "From growth to green growth -- a framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5872, The World Bank.
    4. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2006. "Slacks-based efficiency measures for modeling environmental performance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 111-118, November.
    5. Cenjie Liu & Zhongbao Zhou & Qing Liu & Rui Xie & Ximei Zeng, 2020. "Can a low-carbon development path achieve win-win development: evidence from China’s low-carbon pilot policy," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 1199-1219, October.
    6. Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2011. "Environmental policy and trade performance: Evidence from China," Working Papers 2011-30, CEPII research center.
    7. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2012. "From Growth to Green Growth," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Picazo-Tadeo, Andrés, J. & Melguizo, Celia & Peiró-Palomino, Jesús, 2026. "Towards the green transition in the European regions. Assessing eco-efficiency in greenhouse gases emissions," Working Papers 2602, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    2. Hwang, Young Kyu & Sánchez Díez, Ángeles, 2024. "Renewable energy transition and green growth nexus in Latin America," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Razzaq, Asif & Yang, Xiaodong, 2023. "Digital finance and green growth in China: Appraising inclusive digital finance using web crawler technology and big data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    4. Jasny, Johannes & Schubert, Torben, 2023. "Post-growth and the demand-pull hypothesis of innovation: Biting the hand that feeds you?," Discussion Papers "Innovation Systems and Policy Analysis" 76, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    5. Prevost, Benoît & Rivaud, Audrey & Michelot, Agnès, 2016. "Économie politique des services écosystémiques : de l’analyse économique aux évolutions juridiques," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 19.
    6. Xi Qin & Xiaoling Wang & Yusen Xu & Yawen Wei, 2019. "Exploring Driving Forces of Green Growth: Empirical Analysis on China’s Iron and Steel Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-11, February.
    7. Fevereiro, José Bruno R.T. & Lowe, Benjamin H., 2025. "Macroeconomic implications for the Global South of a green transition in the Global North," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    8. Dimitri Zenghelis, 2019. "Securing Decarbonisation and Growth," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 250(1), pages 54-60, November.
    9. Xiaojuan Li & Chengxin Lin & Gaona Duan & Yun Lin & Yingtong Qiu & Beizhu Wang, 2026. "Evolution of carbon emission efficiency in the construction industry: Evidence from Guangdong-Fujian-Zhejiang coastal urban agglomeration in China," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    10. Mealy, Penny & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2022. "Economic complexity and the green economy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    11. Hepburn, Cameron & Teytelboym, Alexander & Cohen, Francois, 2018. "Is Natural Capital Really Substitutable?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-12, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    12. Dong, Kangyin & Wang, Bo & Zhao, Jun & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2022. "Mitigating carbon emissions by accelerating green growth in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 226-243.
    13. Zhao, Jun & Dong, Kangyin & Dong, Xiucheng & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2022. "Is green growth affected by financial risks? New global evidence from asymmetric and heterogeneous analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Satar Bakhsh & Md Shabbir Alam & Kishwar Ali & Muhammad Anas, 2024. "What facilitates green economic growth in mineral-endowment countries? The role of digital financial inclusion, mineral resources, and economic governance," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 37(4), pages 841-861, December.
    15. Gong Caijuan & Farah Durani & Afshan Hamid & Qasim Raza Syed & Kay Hooi Keoy & Ahsan Anwar, 2026. "Navigating the green growth spectrum: Exploring the synergy between geopolitical risk, environmental policy stringency, and green production practices," Energy & Environment, , vol. 37(2), pages 826-852, March.
    16. Sam Fankhauser & Frank Jotzo, 2017. "Economic growth and development with low-carbon energy," CCEP Working Papers 1705, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Carlo Jaeger, 2014. "Choice for China: What Role for Vocational Education in Green Growth?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(5), pages 55-75, September.
    18. Jason Hickel & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2022. "Can we live within environmental limits and still reduce poverty? Degrowth or decoupling?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(1), January.
    19. Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki & Yuan, Yan & Goto, Mika, 2017. "A literature study for DEA applied to energy and environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 104-124.
    20. Jean-Louis Combes & Pascale Combes Motel & Somlanaré Romuald Kinda, 2014. "Do Environmental Policies Hurt Trade Performance?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00939249, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:103:y:2025:i:c:s1059056025006136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.