IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v34y2014icp208-224.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study

Author

Listed:
  • Diogo, V.
  • van der Hilst, F.
  • van Eijck, J.
  • Verstegen, J.A.
  • Hilbert, J.
  • Carballo, S.
  • Volante, J.
  • Faaij, A.

Abstract

In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores future developments in food and feed production to determine land availability and technical potential of biofuel production. The theory-based approach assesses the economic performance of biofuel crops on the surplus land in comparison with other production systems and determines the economic potential of biofuel production. The framework is demonstrated for a case study in Argentina to determine the development of biofuel potential from soy and switchgrass up to 2030. Two scenarios were considered regarding future developments of productivity in agriculture and livestock production. It was found that under a scenario reflecting a continuation of current trends, no surplus land is expected to become available. Nevertheless, the potential for soybean biodiesel is expected to keep increasing up to 103PJ in 2030, due to the existence of a developed agro-industrial sector jointly producing feed and biodiesel. In case large technological developments occur, 32Mha could become available in 2030, which would allow for a technical potential of 472PJ soybean biodiesel and 1445PJ switchgrass bioethanol. According to the economic assessment, an economic potential of 368PJ of soy biodiesel and 1.1EJ switchgrass bioethanol could be attained, at a feedstock production cost of 100–155 US$/ton and 20–45 US$/ton, respectively. The region of southwest Buenos Aires and La Pampa provinces appeared to be particularly promising for switchgrass. The ability of jointly assessing future developments in land availability, technical and economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC and spatial distribution of viable locations for growing biofuel crops means that the proposed framework is a step forward in assessing the potential for biofuel production that is both economically viable and sustainably produced.

Suggested Citation

  • Diogo, V. & van der Hilst, F. & van Eijck, J. & Verstegen, J.A. & Hilbert, J. & Carballo, S. & Volante, J. & Faaij, A., 2014. "Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 208-224.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:34:y:2014:i:c:p:208-224
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2014.02.040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032114001774
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Dam, J. & Faaij, A.P.C. & Hilbert, J. & Petruzzi, H. & Turkenburg, W.C., 2009. "Large-scale bioenergy production from soybeans and switchgrass in Argentina: Part B. Environmental and socio-economic impacts on a regional level," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1679-1709, October.
    2. Robert Pontius & Wideke Boersma & Jean-Christophe Castella & Keith Clarke & Ton Nijs & Charles Dietzel & Zengqiang Duan & Eric Fotsing & Noah Goldstein & Kasper Kok & Eric Koomen & Christopher Lippitt, 2008. "Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 11-37, March.
    3. Harvey, Mark & Pilgrim, Sarah, 2011. "The new competition for land: Food, energy, and climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 40-51.
    4. repec:eee:ecomod:v:222:y:2011:i:19:p:3486-3499 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Harvey, Mark & Pilgrim, Sarah, 2011. "The new competition for land: Food, energy, and climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 40-51, January.
    6. van Dam, J. & Faaij, A.P.C. & Hilbert, J. & Petruzzi, H. & Turkenburg, W.C., 2009. "Large-scale bioenergy production from soybeans and switchgrass in Argentina: Part A: Potential and economic feasibility for national and international markets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1710-1733, October.
    7. Martin Banse & Hans van Meijl & Andrzej Tabeau & Geert Woltjer, 2008. "Will EU biofuel policies affect global agricultural markets?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 117-141, June.
    8. Mathews, John A. & Goldsztein, Hugo, 2009. "Capturing latecomer advantages in the adoption of biofuels: The case of Argentina," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 326-337, January.
    9. Peter Verburg & Bas Eickhout & Hans Meijl, 2008. "A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 57-77, March.
    10. Tomei, Julia & Upham, Paul, 2009. "Argentinean soy-based biodiesel: An introduction to production and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3890-3898, October.
    11. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. van der Hilst, F. & Dornburg, V. & Sanders, J.P.M. & Elbersen, B. & Graves, A. & Turkenburg, W.C. & Elbersen, H.W. & van Dam, J.M.C. & Faaij, A.P.C., 2010. "Potential, spatial distribution and economic performance of regional biomass chains: The North of the Netherlands as example," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(7), pages 403-417, September.
    13. Feng Song & Jinhua Zhao & Scott M. Swinton, 2011. "Switching to Perennial Energy Crops Under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(3), pages 764-779.
    14. van der Hilst, F. & Lesschen, J.P. & van Dam, J.M.C. & Riksen, M. & Verweij, P.A. & Sanders, J.P.M. & Faaij, A.P.C., 2012. "Spatial variation of environmental impacts of regional biomass chains," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 2053-2069.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:enepol:v:110:y:2017:i:c:p:631-643 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Andrée, Bo Pieter Johannes & Diogo, Vasco & Koomen, Eric, 2017. "Efficiency of second-generation biofuel crop subsidy schemes: Spatial heterogeneity and policy design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 848-862.
    3. Joselin Herbert, G.M. & Unni Krishnan, A., 2016. "Quantifying environmental performance of biomass energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 292-308.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:34:y:2014:i:c:p:208-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.