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Gasoline and diesel demand in the EU: Implications for the 2030 emission goal

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  • Aklilu, Abenezer Zeleke

Abstract

Methodologically consistent demand estimates are necessary to analyze and forecast the effect of a common fuel policy across the EU-28. This study estimates short-run and long-run price and income elasticities for gasoline and diesel demands using the ARDL Bounds approach that also tests the existence of a long-run relationship using data from 1978 to 2013. The results show that elasticity estimates between the EU-28 countries vary and the estimated long-run elasticities are higher than their short-run counterparts, which is in line with expectations based on the existing literature. The short-run and long-run income elasticities of gasoline and diesel demand are found to be more elastic than their price equivalents implying that if a charge on fuel is designed to decrease emissions by increasing the price, the charge needs to rise at a higher rate than income. An analysis of the EU's 2030 emission and fuel consumption reduction targets using the estimated long-run elasticities shows that, with the current tax scheme, it cannot be guaranteed that emission targets will be achieved and thus a more stringent fuel tax policy is essential.

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  • Aklilu, Abenezer Zeleke, 2020. "Gasoline and diesel demand in the EU: Implications for the 2030 emission goal," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:118:y:2020:i:c:s1364032119307385
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2019.109530
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    References listed on IDEAS

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