IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v256y2026iphs096014812502230x.html

Investigation and evaluation of strategic residential heat and transport electrification for supporting deep grid decarbonization

Author

Listed:
  • Xu, Wenya
  • Ruan, Yingjun
  • Li, Yanxue
  • Xiao, Fu
  • Xu, Tingting
  • Yao, Yuting
  • Meng, Hua

Abstract

The rapid decline in the levelized cost of renewable energy and the scale-up application of distributed heat pumps (HPs) and electrical vehicles (EVs) provide efficient conditions for the electrification of residential buildings. However, the rising penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) significantly change the dynamics of the power grid balancing. Enhancing system flexibility and enabling multi-energy coupling are necessary to facilitate the realization of a sustainable decarbonization pathway. This work proposes a grid-interactive schedule model of the residential energy system. Aggregated historical data of residential buildings in Kyushu are used to validate the proposed demand management strategies and assess the benefits of coordinating HP and EV operations under diverse scenarios. The results demonstrate that the rising EV and HP penetration create higher demands on the grid, especially in winter, characterized by more peak demand and higher slopes. Moreover, the peak demand difference among these scenarios reaches a factor of two. PV integration mitigates the increase in peak electricity demand and increases the self-sufficiency ratio by 32 %. Furthermore, some scenarios can achieve fully on-site PV generation consumption. Transport electrification shows a greater impact compared to hot water electrification. Overall, all the scenarios demonstrate the operation cost savings with increased DER penetration.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Wenya & Ruan, Yingjun & Li, Yanxue & Xiao, Fu & Xu, Tingting & Yao, Yuting & Meng, Hua, 2026. "Investigation and evaluation of strategic residential heat and transport electrification for supporting deep grid decarbonization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PH).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:256:y:2026:i:ph:s096014812502230x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.124566
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014812502230X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2025.124566?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lion Hirth, 2013. "The Market Value of Variable Renewables. The Effect of Solar and Wind Power Variability on their Relative Price," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/36, European University Institute.
    2. Karen Smith Stegen, 2023. "International relations theory on grid communities and international politics in a green world," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(10), pages 1073-1077, October.
    3. Guo, Bentao & Lemort, Vincent & Cendoya, Aitor, 2025. "Control strategy and techno-economic optimization of a small-scale hybrid energy storage system: A reversible HP/ORC-based Carnot battery and an electrical battery," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    4. Luňáčková, Petra & Průša, Jan & Janda, Karel, 2017. "The merit order effect of Czech photovoltaic plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 138-147.
    5. Jain, Sourabh & Shrimali, Gireesh, 2022. "Impact of renewable electricity on utility finances: Assessing merit order effect for an Indian utility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Rehman, Anis Ur & Ullah, Zia & Shafiq, Aqib & Hasanien, Hany M. & Luo, Peng & Badshah, Fazal, 2023. "Load management, energy economics, and environmental protection nexus considering PV-based EV charging stations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    7. Damianakis, Nikolaos & Mouli, Gautham Ram Chandra & Bauer, Pavol & Yu, Yunhe, 2023. "Assessing the grid impact of Electric Vehicles, Heat Pumps & PV generation in Dutch LV distribution grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    8. Sayed, Mohammad Ali & Ghafouri, Mohsen & Atallah, Ribal & Debbabi, Mourad & Assi, Chadi, 2023. "Protecting the future grid: An electric vehicle robust mitigation scheme against load altering attacks on power grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    9. Diab, Ibrahim & Damianakis, Nikolaos & Chandra-Mouli, Gautham Ram & Bauer, Pavol, 2024. "A shared PV system for transportation and residential loads to reduce curtailment and the need for storage systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    10. Motoaki, Yutaka & Yi, Wenqi & Salisbury, Shawn, 2018. "Empirical analysis of electric vehicle fast charging under cold temperatures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 162-168.
    11. Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun, 2024. "Optimization of tilt angle for PV in China with long-term hourly surface solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    12. Knittel, Tamara & Palmer-Wilson, Kevin & McPherson, Madeleine & Wild, Peter & Rowe, Andrew, 2024. "Heating electrification in cold climates: Invest in grid flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    13. Daneshzand, Farzaneh & Coker, Phil J & Potter, Ben & Smith, Stefan T, 2023. "EV smart charging: How tariff selection influences grid stress and carbon reduction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    14. Brinkel, N.B.G. & Schram, W.L. & AlSkaif, T.A. & Lampropoulos, I. & van Sark, W.G.J.H.M., 2020. "Should we reinforce the grid? Cost and emission optimization of electric vehicle charging under different transformer limits," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    15. Rücker, Fabian & Schoeneberger, Ilka & Wilmschen, Till & Sperling, Dustin & Haberschusz, David & Figgener, Jan & Sauer, Dirk Uwe, 2022. "Self-sufficiency and charger constraints of prosumer households with vehicle-to-home strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    16. Wenya Xu & Yanxue Li & Guanjie He & Yang Xu & Weijun Gao, 2023. "Performance Assessment and Comparative Analysis of Photovoltaic-Battery System Scheduling in an Existing Zero-Energy House Based on Reinforcement Learning Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-19, June.
    17. Peacock, Malcolm & Fragaki, Aikaterini & Matuszewski, Bogdan J, 2023. "The impact of heat electrification on the seasonal and interannual electricity demand of Great Britain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    18. Buonomano, Annamaria, 2020. "Building to Vehicle to Building concept: A comprehensive parametric and sensitivity analysis for decision making aims," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    19. Zhang, Qi & Tezuka, Tetsuo & Ishihara, Keiichi N. & Mclellan, Benjamin C., 2012. "Integration of PV power into future low-carbon smart electricity systems with EV and HP in Kansai Area, Japan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 99-108.
    20. McGarry, Connor & Dixon, James & Flower, Jack & Bukhsh, Waqquas & Brand, Christian & Bell, Keith & Galloway, Stuart, 2024. "Electrified heat and transport: Energy demand futures, their impacts on power networks and what it means for system flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    21. Lazzeroni, Paolo & Olivero, Sergio & Repetto, Maurizio & Stirano, Federico & Vallet, Marc, 2019. "Optimal battery management for vehicle-to-home and vehicle-to-grid operations in a residential case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 704-721.
    22. Petra Lunackova & Jan Prusa & Karel Janda, 2017. "The Merit Order Effect of Czech Renewable Energy," CAMA Working Papers 2017-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Macedo, Daniela Pereira & Marques, António Cardoso & Damette, Olivier, 2020. "The impact of the integration of renewable energy sources in the electricity price formation: is the Merit-Order Effect occurring in Portugal?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Simshauser, Paul, 2020. "Merchant renewables and the valuation of peaking plant in energy-only markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Jain, Sourabh & Shrimali, Gireesh, 2022. "Impact of renewable electricity on utility finances: Assessing merit order effect for an Indian utility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da, 2019. "The “Merit-order effect” of wind and solar power: Volatility and determinants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 54-62.
    5. David Talavera-Zabre, 2022. "Market-value of Renewables in the Young Mexican Power Market," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(4), pages 1-27, Octubre -.
    6. Thomaßen, Georg & Redl, Christian & Bruckner, Thomas, 2022. "Will the energy-only market collapse? On market dynamics in low-carbon electricity systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    7. Liebensteiner, Mario & Wrienz, Matthias, 2020. "Do Intermittent Renewables Threaten the Electricity Supply Security?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    8. Gökgöz, Fazıl & Yücel, Öykü, 2025. "Measuring the long-term impact of wind, run-of-river, solar renewable energy alternatives on market clearing prices," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Ondřej Filip & Karel Janda & Ladislav Krištoufek, 2018. "Ceny biopaliv a souvisejících komodit: analýza s použitím metod minimální kostry grafu a hierarchických stromů [Prices of Biofuels and Related Commodities: an Analysis Using Methods of Minimum Spanning Tree and Hierarchical Tree]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(2), pages 218-239.
    10. Rinne, Sonja, 2024. "Estimating the merit-order effect using coarsened exact matching: Reconciling theory with the empirical results to improve policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    11. Quintero Fuentes, Abel & Hickman, Mark & Whitehead, Jake, 2025. "Zone substations' readiness to embrace electric vehicle adoption: Brisbane case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    12. Niu, Jide & Li, Xiaoyuan & Tian, Zhe & Yang, Hongxing, 2024. "Uncertainty analysis of the electric vehicle potential for a household to enhance robustness in decision on the EV/V2H technologies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    13. Kumar, Gokula Manikandan Senthil & Guo, Xinman & Zhou, Shijie & Luo, Haojie & Wu, Qi & Liu, Yulin & Dou, Zhenyu & Pan, Kai & Xu, Yang & Yang, Hongxing & Cao, Sunliang, 2025. "State-of-the-art review of smart energy management systems for supporting zero-emission electric vehicles with X2V and V2X interactions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    14. Zhang, Xiaoyi & Liu, Yan & Li, Yanxue & Lv, Xiaoyu & Xiao, Fu & Gao, Weijun, 2024. "Analyzing variability and coordinated demand management for various flexible integrations of residential distributed energy resources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PA).
    15. Ishizaki, Takayuki & Koike, Masakazu & Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki & Ueda, Yuzuru & Imura, Jun-ichi, 2020. "Day-ahead energy market as adjustable robust optimization: Spatio-temporal pricing of dispatchable generators, storage batteries, and uncertain renewable resources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    16. Jain, Sourabh & Jain, Nikunj Kumar, 2020. "Cost of electricity banking under open-access arrangement: A case of solar electricity in India," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 776-788.
    17. Maticka, Martin J. & Mahmoud, Thair S., 2025. "Bayesian Belief Networks: Redefining wholesale electricity price modelling in high penetration non-firm renewable generation power systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    18. Nibedita, Barsha & Irfan, Mohd, 2022. "Analyzing the asymmetric impacts of renewables on wholesale electricity price: Empirical evidence from the Indian electricity market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 538-551.
    19. Steinbach, Sarah A. & Blaschke, Maximilian J., 2024. "Enabling electric mobility: Can photovoltaic and home battery systems significantly reduce grid reinforcement costs?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    20. Ghanbari Motlagh, Saheb & Oladigbolu, Jamiu & Li, Li, 2025. "A review on electric vehicle charging station operation considering market dynamics and grid interaction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:256:y:2026:i:ph:s096014812502230x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.