Heating electrification in cold climates: Invest in grid flexibility

One strategy to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in end-use sectors such as building heat is to switch from fossil fuels to electricity. To date, electricity consumption follows a regular and predictable pattern; however, electrifying building heat, which is driven by ambient temperature, causes this pattern to change. Previous work has not fully addressed the implications of building heat electrification on the timing and magnitude of peak demands and on flexibility requirements of the electricity grid. In this work, a high-resolution heating demand model, featuring building stock turnover forecasts, is developed, and applied to British Columbia. The study determines energy, capacity, and flexibility requirements by computing regional energy load profiles for space and water heat. Six scenarios were developed to examine the decarbonization potential in the residential and commercial building sector, considering increased heat pump adoption, building envelope energy efficiency improvements, and the implementation of building energy codes. With an emphasis on building stock improvements, 90% heat pump penetration results in only 6% increase in electrical energy even with an annual population growth rate of 1.1%; however, this scenario leads to a 37% increase in peak electricity demand. Over the time-period considered, building energy codes and retrofit rates contribute relatively little to achieving net-zero emissions in the buildings sector, while building heat electrification has significant impacts on future flexibility requirements of the electricity grid.