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A novel approach for estimating residential space heating demand

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  • Berger, Matthias
  • Worlitschek, Jörg

Abstract

Energy system models on country level usually contain multiple energy carriers at different granularity. While data is comparably rich in terms of temporal and spatial resolution for the electricity part, much less is known for heat. Especially the true demand for heat as a function of usage and time is difficult to obtain. In many cases, energy consumption data (fuel oil, natural gas, district heating etc.) is taken as approximation for the final energy end-use of heat. Different heat distribution technologies bring their own bias on temperature levels and heating hours, like with ground floor heating vs. radiator. Therefore, historic consumption data is not an appropriate base for modelling of energy systems with long prospect. The present research work proposes a novel top-down methodology for generating aggregated load curves on heat demand, with a focus on residential space heating. Maps of population density distribution combined with norm temperature profiles and the definition of heating degree days provides a tempo-spatial map of heating demand. The knowledge of total residential space heating demand is used to identify the aggregated demand curve, suitable for energy system modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Berger, Matthias & Worlitschek, Jörg, 2018. "A novel approach for estimating residential space heating demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 294-301.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:159:y:2018:i:c:p:294-301
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.138
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    18. Mutschler, Robin & Rüdisüli, Martin & Heer, Philipp & Eggimann, Sven, 2021. "Benchmarking cooling and heating energy demands considering climate change, population growth and cooling device uptake," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    19. Lee, Zachary E. & Max Zhang, K., 2022. "Unintended consequences of smart thermostats in the transition to electrified heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    20. Dioha, Michael O. & Kumar, Atul, 2020. "Exploring sustainable energy transitions in sub-Saharan Africa residential sector: The case of Nigeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    21. Meha, Drilon & Dragusha, Bedri & Thakur, Jagruti & Novosel, Tomislav & Duić, Neven, 2021. "A novel spatial based approach for estimation of space heating demand saving potential and CO2 emissions reduction in urban areas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
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