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The Impact of the Urban Heat Island and Future Climate on Urban Building Energy Use in a Midwestern U.S. Neighborhood

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  • Farzad Hashemi

    (School of Architecture and Planning, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA)

  • Parisa Najafian

    (School of Architecture and Planning, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA)

  • Negar Salahi

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019, USA)

  • Sedigheh Ghiasi

    (Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA)

  • Ulrike Passe

    (College of Design, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA)

Abstract

Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) datasets, widely used in building energy modeling, overlook Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects and future climate trends by relying on long-term data from rural stations such as airports. This study addresses this limitation by integrating Urban Weather Generator (UWG) simulations with CCWorldWeatherGen projections to produce microclimate-adjusted and future weather scenarios. These datasets were then incorporated into an Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) framework using Urban Modeling Interface (UMI) to evaluate energy performance across a low-income residential neighborhood in Des Moines, Iowa. Results show that UHI intensity will rise from an annual average of 0.55 °C under current conditions to 0.60 °C by 2050 and 0.63 °C by 2080, with peak intensities in summer. The UHI elevates cooling Energy Use Intensity (EUI) by 7% today, with projections indicating a sharp increase—91% by 2050 and 154% by 2080. The UHI will further amplify cooling demand by 2.3% and 6.2% in 2050 and 2080, respectively. Conversely, heating EUI will decline by 20.0% by 2050 and 40.1% by 2080, with the UHI slightly reducing heating demand. Insulation mitigates cooling loads but becomes less effective for heating demand over time. These findings highlight the need for climate-adaptive policies, building retrofits, and UHI mitigation to manage future cooling demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Farzad Hashemi & Parisa Najafian & Negar Salahi & Sedigheh Ghiasi & Ulrike Passe, 2025. "The Impact of the Urban Heat Island and Future Climate on Urban Building Energy Use in a Midwestern U.S. Neighborhood," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-28, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:6:p:1474-:d:1614120
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    References listed on IDEAS

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