IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v196y2022icp422-431.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wind speed forecasting using a hybrid model considering the turbulence of the airflow

Author

Listed:
  • Méndez-Gordillo, Alma Rosa
  • Campos-Amezcua, Rafael
  • Cadenas, Erasmo

Abstract

This work presents the conformation of a hybrid model aimed at forecasting the wind speed one step ahead. The model comprises the Multiplicative Cascade and Persistence. To couple both techniques, a transition point was used, in this case, 6.6 m/s, defined from the spectrum of wind speed near the ground. The Multiplicative Cascade was used when speeds were higher than the transition point, while Persistence was used when lower. Two time series measured in Tamaulipas and Veracruz, Mexico, were used to build the hybrid model. The performance of the individual models concerning the hybrid model was compared, finding that the adjustment of the hybrid model exceeds that of the Multiplicative Cascade and Persistence models for both series. Different error metrics were used in the quantitative analysis, where the hybrid model was the most competitive. For example, in Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the difference in performance between the hybrid model and Persistence is 2.72% points for the 10-min time series. In contrast, this difference is 27.89% points for the hourly time series. Finally, this work shows that for the cases analyzed, differentiating the effects of turbulent from non-turbulent flows and modeling with the proper techniques improves forecasting accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Méndez-Gordillo, Alma Rosa & Campos-Amezcua, Rafael & Cadenas, Erasmo, 2022. "Wind speed forecasting using a hybrid model considering the turbulence of the airflow," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 422-431.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:196:y:2022:i:c:p:422-431
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.06.139
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148122009776
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2022.06.139?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shi, Jing & Guo, Jinmei & Zheng, Songtao, 2012. "Evaluation of hybrid forecasting approaches for wind speed and power generation time series," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 3471-3480.
    2. Moreno, Sinvaldo Rodrigues & dos Santos Coelho, Leandro, 2018. "Wind speed forecasting approach based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 736-754.
    3. Liu, Zhenkun & Jiang, Ping & Zhang, Lifang & Niu, Xinsong, 2020. "A combined forecasting model for time series: Application to short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    4. Li, Chaoshun & Xiao, Zhengguang & Xia, Xin & Zou, Wen & Zhang, Chu, 2018. "A hybrid model based on synchronous optimisation for multi-step short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 131-144.
    5. Balkissoon, Sarah & Fox, Neil & Lupo, Anthony, 2020. "Fractal characteristics of tall tower wind speeds in Missouri," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1346-1356.
    6. Kavasseri, Rajesh G. & Nagarajan, Radhakrishnan, 2005. "A multifractal description of wind speed records," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 165-173.
    7. Yu, Zu-Guo & Leung, Yee & Chen, Yongqin David & Zhang, Qiang & Anh, Vo & Zhou, Yu, 2014. "Multifractal analyses of daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin of China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 193-202.
    8. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    9. Liu, Hui & Mi, Xiwei & Li, Yanfei & Duan, Zhu & Xu, Yinan, 2019. "Smart wind speed deep learning based multi-step forecasting model using singular spectrum analysis, convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit network and Support Vector Regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 842-854.
    10. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2009. "Short term wind speed forecasting in La Venta, Oaxaca, México, using artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 274-278.
    11. Lei, Ma & Shiyan, Luan & Chuanwen, Jiang & Hongling, Liu & Yan, Zhang, 2009. "A review on the forecasting of wind speed and generated power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 915-920, May.
    12. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-Qi & Chen, Chao & Li, Yan-fei, 2010. "A hybrid statistical method to predict wind speed and wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1857-1861.
    13. Wang, Jianzhou & Qin, Shanshan & Zhou, Qingping & Jiang, Haiyan, 2015. "Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 91-101.
    14. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.
    15. Méndez-Gordillo, Alma Rosa & Cadenas, Erasmo, 2021. "Wind speed forecasting by the extraction of the multifractal patterns of time series through the multiplicative cascade technique," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    16. Moreno, Sinvaldo Rodrigues & Mariani, Viviana Cocco & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos, 2021. "Hybrid multi-stage decomposition with parametric model applied to wind speed forecasting in Brazilian Northeast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1508-1526.
    17. Hallam, Mark & Olmo, Jose, 2014. "Forecasting daily return densities from intraday data: A multifractal approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 863-881.
    18. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zemali, Zakaria & Cherroun, Lakhmissi & Hadroug, Nadji & Hafaifa, Ahmed & Iratni, Abdelhamid & Alshammari, Obaid S. & Colak, Ilhami, 2023. "Robust intelligent fault diagnosis strategy using Kalman observers and neuro-fuzzy systems for a wind turbine benchmark," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 873-898.
    2. Akbal, Yıldırım & Ünlü, Kamil Demirberk, 2022. "A univariate time series methodology based on sequence-to-sequence learning for short to midterm wind power production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 832-844.
    3. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2023. "Multivariate wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective feature selection approach and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    2. Méndez-Gordillo, Alma Rosa & Cadenas, Erasmo, 2021. "Wind speed forecasting by the extraction of the multifractal patterns of time series through the multiplicative cascade technique," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    4. Wu, Jie & Li, Na & Zhao, Yan & Wang, Jujie, 2022. "Usage of correlation analysis and hypothesis test in optimizing the gated recurrent unit network for wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    5. Sandra Minerva Valdivia-Bautista & José Antonio Domínguez-Navarro & Marco Pérez-Cisneros & Carlos Jesahel Vega-Gómez & Beatriz Castillo-Téllez, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence in Wind Speed Forecasting: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-28, March.
    6. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    7. Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai & Yang, Wendong & Du, Pei, 2018. "An analysis-forecast system for uncertainty modeling of wind speed: A case study of large-scale wind farms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 492-512.
    8. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    9. Acikgoz, Hakan & Budak, Umit & Korkmaz, Deniz & Yildiz, Ceyhun, 2021. "WSFNet: An efficient wind speed forecasting model using channel attention-based densely connected convolutional neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    10. Yu, Jie & Chen, Kuilin & Mori, Junichi & Rashid, Mudassir M., 2013. "A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 673-686.
    11. Emeksiz, Cem & Tan, Mustafa, 2022. "Multi-step wind speed forecasting and Hurst analysis using novel hybrid secondary decomposition approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    12. Shang, Zhihao & He, Zhaoshuang & Chen, Yao & Chen, Yanhua & Xu, MingLiang, 2022. "Short-term wind speed forecasting system based on multivariate time series and multi-objective optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    13. D’Amico, Guglielmo & Petroni, Filippo & Prattico, Flavio, 2015. "Economic performance indicators of wind energy based on wind speed stochastic modeling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 290-297.
    14. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Li, Yan-fei, 2012. "Comparison of two new ARIMA-ANN and ARIMA-Kalman hybrid methods for wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-424.
    15. Li, Yanfei & Shi, Huipeng & Han, Fengze & Duan, Zhu & Liu, Hui, 2019. "Smart wind speed forecasting approach using various boosting algorithms, big multi-step forecasting strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 540-553.
    16. Wang, Jianzhou & Xiong, Shenghua, 2014. "A hybrid forecasting model based on outlier detection and fuzzy time series – A case study on Hainan wind farm of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 526-541.
    17. Qunli Wu & Huaxing Lin, 2019. "Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Hybrid Variational Mode Decomposition and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Bat Algorithm Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, January.
    18. Wang, Jianzhou & Qin, Shanshan & Zhou, Qingping & Jiang, Haiyan, 2015. "Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 91-101.
    19. Aasim, & Singh, S.N. & Mohapatra, Abheejeet, 2019. "Repeated wavelet transform based ARIMA model for very short-term wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 758-768.
    20. Wang, Yun & Wang, Haibo & Srinivasan, Dipti & Hu, Qinghua, 2019. "Robust functional regression for wind speed forecasting based on Sparse Bayesian learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 43-60.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:196:y:2022:i:c:p:422-431. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.