IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v131y2014icp166-174.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The validation of evacuation simulation models through the analysis of behavioural uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Lovreglio, Ruggiero
  • Ronchi, Enrico
  • Borri, Dino

Abstract

Both experimental and simulation data on fire evacuation are influenced by a component of uncertainty caused by the impact of the unexplained variance in human behaviour, namely behavioural uncertainty (BU). Evacuation model validation studies should include the study of this type of uncertainty during the comparison of experiments and simulation results. An evacuation model validation procedure is introduced in this paper to study the impact of BU. This methodology is presented through a case study for the comparison between repeated experimental data and simulation results produced by FDS+Evac, an evacuation model for the simulation of human behaviour in fire, which makes use of distribution laws.

Suggested Citation

  • Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Ronchi, Enrico & Borri, Dino, 2014. "The validation of evacuation simulation models through the analysis of behavioural uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 166-174.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:131:y:2014:i:c:p:166-174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.07.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832014001628
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2014.07.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guo, Ren-Yong & Huang, Hai-Jun & Wong, S.C., 2012. "Route choice in pedestrian evacuation under conditions of good and zero visibility: Experimental and simulation results," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 669-686.
    2. Liu, Yu & Wang, Weijie & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Li, Yanfeng & Yang, Yuanjian, 2014. "A new simulation model for assessing aircraft emergency evacuation considering passenger physical characteristics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 187-197.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karolina Żydek & Małgorzata Król & Aleksander Król, 2021. "Evacuation Simulation Focusing on Modeling of Disabled People Movement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Kinateder, Max & Warren, William H., 2021. "Exit choice during evacuation is influenced by both the size and proportion of the egressing crowd," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 569(C).
    3. Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Fonzone, Achille & dell’Olio, Luigi, 2016. "A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 59-75.
    4. Wang, Xinjian & Liu, Zhengjiang & Loughney, Sean & Yang, Zaili & Wang, Yanfu & Wang, Jin, 2022. "Numerical analysis and staircase layout optimisation for a Ro-Ro passenger ship during emergency evacuation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Spearpoint, Michael & Girault, Mathilde, 2019. "The impact of sampling methods on evacuation model convergence and egress time," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 24-34.
    6. Fang, Zhi-Ming & Lv, Wei & Jiang, Li-Xue & Xu, Qing-Feng & Song, Wei-Guo, 2016. "Modeling and assessment of civil aircraft evacuation based on finer-grid," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 448(C), pages 102-112.
    7. Xie, Qimiao & Wang, Jinhui & Lu, Shouxiang & Hensen, Jan L.M., 2016. "An optimization method for the distance between exits of buildings considering uncertainties based on arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 188-196.
    8. Song, Chengcheng & Shao, Quan & Zhu, Pei & Dong, Min & Yu, Wenfei, 2023. "An emergency aircraft evacuation simulation considering passenger overtaking and luggage retrieval," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    9. Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Ronchi, Enrico & Nilsson, Daniel, 2015. "Calibrating floor field cellular automaton models for pedestrian dynamics by using likelihood function optimization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 308-320.
    10. Teichmann, Dusan & Dorda, Michal & Sousek, Radovan, 2021. "Creation of preventive mass evacuation plan with the use of public transport," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    11. Haghani, Milad & Sarvi, Majid, 2019. "Laboratory experimentation and simulation of discrete direction choices: Investigating hypothetical bias, decision-rule effect and external validity based on aggregate prediction measures," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 134-157.
    12. Kayvan Aghabayk & Alireza Soltani & Nirajan Shiwakoti, 2022. "Investigating Pedestrians’ Exit Choice with Incident Location Awareness in an Emergency in a Multi-Level Shopping Complex," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-21, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Zhichen & Li, Ying & Zhang, Zhaoyi & Yu, Wenbo, 2022. "A new evacuation accessibility analysis approach based on spatial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    2. Liu, Qian, 2018. "A social force model for the crowd evacuation in a terrorist attack," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 502(C), pages 315-330.
    3. Xie, Chuan-Zhi & Tang, Tie-Qiao & Hu, Peng-Cheng & Chen, Liang, 2022. "Observation and cellular-automaton based modeling of pedestrian behavior on an escalator," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 605(C).
    4. Cui, Xiaoting & Ji, Jingwei & Bai, Xuehe & Cao, Yin & Wu, Tong, 2022. "Research and realization of parallel algorithms for large scale crowd evacuation in emergency," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 713-724.
    5. Xu, Xin-yue & Liu, Jun & Li, Hai-ying & Jiang, Man, 2016. "Capacity-oriented passenger flow control under uncertain demand: Algorithm development and real-world case study," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 130-148.
    6. Wang, Xinjian & Liu, Zhengjiang & Loughney, Sean & Yang, Zaili & Wang, Yanfu & Wang, Jin, 2022. "Numerical analysis and staircase layout optimisation for a Ro-Ro passenger ship during emergency evacuation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    7. Wang, Shuaian & Zhang, Wei & Qu, Xiaobo, 2018. "Trial-and-error train fare design scheme for addressing boarding/alighting congestion at CBD stations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 318-335.
    8. Haghani, Milad & Sarvi, Majid & Shahhoseini, Zahra, 2019. "When ‘push’ does not come to ‘shove’: Revisiting ‘faster is slower’ in collective egress of human crowds," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 51-69.
    9. Guo, Ren-Yong, 2014. "Simulation of spatial and temporal separation of pedestrian counter flow through a bottleneck," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 428-439.
    10. Song, Chengcheng & Shao, Quan & Zhu, Pei & Dong, Min & Yu, Wenfei, 2023. "An emergency aircraft evacuation simulation considering passenger overtaking and luggage retrieval," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    11. Zhou, Di & Zhuang, Xiao & Zuo, Hongfu & Cai, Jing & Zhao, Xufeng & Xiang, Jiawei, 2022. "A model fusion strategy for identifying aircraft risk using CNN and Att-BiLSTM," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    12. Huang, Shenshi & Zhang, Teng & Lo, Siuming & Lu, Shouxiang & Li, Changhai, 2018. "Experimental study of individual and single-file pedestrian movement in narrow seat aisle," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 1023-1033.
    13. Huang, Rong & Zhao, Xuan & Zhou, Chenyu & Kong, Lingchen & Liu, Chengqing & Yu, Qiang, 2022. "Static floor field construction and fine discrete cellular automaton model: Algorithms, simulations and insights," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 606(C).
    14. Cao, Shuchao & Song, Weiguo & Lv, Wei & Fang, Zhiming, 2015. "A multi-grid model for pedestrian evacuation in a room without visibility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 45-61.
    15. Yu Song & Jia Liu & Qian Liu, 2021. "Dynamic Decision-Making Process of Evacuees during Post-Earthquake Evacuation near an Automatic Flap Barrier Gate System: A Broken Windows Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    16. Huang, Rong & Zhao, Xuan & Yuan, Yufei & Yu, Qiang & Zhou, Chenyu & Daamen, Winnie, 2021. "Experimental study on evacuation behaviour of passengers in a high-deck coach: A Chinese case study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 579(C).
    17. Fang, Zhi-Ming & Lv, Wei & Jiang, Li-Xue & Xu, Qing-Feng & Song, Wei-Guo, 2016. "Modeling and assessment of civil aircraft evacuation based on finer-grid," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 448(C), pages 102-112.
    18. Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Ronchi, Enrico & Nilsson, Daniel, 2015. "Calibrating floor field cellular automaton models for pedestrian dynamics by using likelihood function optimization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 308-320.
    19. Liu, Qian, 2018. "The effect of dedicated exit on the evacuation of heterogeneous pedestrians," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 305-323.
    20. Haghani, Milad & Sarvi, Majid, 2018. "Crowd behaviour and motion: Empirical methods," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 253-294.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:131:y:2014:i:c:p:166-174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.