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Concrete transformation of buildings in China and implications for the steel cycle

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  • Wang, Tao
  • Tian, Xin
  • Hashimoto, Seiji
  • Tanikawa, Hiroki

Abstract

Urbanization and real estate development are two mighty impetuses for the growth of China. An enhanced dynamic modeling has been devised to explore stocks and flows of buildings in the country and to quantify the related steel cycle. The uncertainties of the variables and results are investigated by the means of Monte Carlo method and sampling analysis. The building stocks are expected to increase to some 85–130 billion m2 in the mid-century, about 40–100% up from the current level. Throughout China but in urban areas in particular, concrete structures are replacing the buildings made of wood, clay brick, and primitive materials. By 2050 every two out of three buildings in China will be reinforced concrete- or steel-framed, leading to substantial demand for ferrous metals.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Tao & Tian, Xin & Hashimoto, Seiji & Tanikawa, Hiroki, 2015. "Concrete transformation of buildings in China and implications for the steel cycle," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 205-215.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:103:y:2015:i:c:p:205-215
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2015.07.021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Ruirui Zhang & Jing Guo & Dong Yang & Hiroaki Shirakawa & Feng Shi & Hiroki Tanikawa, 2022. "What matters most to the material intensity coefficient of buildings? Random forest‐based evidence from China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(5), pages 1809-1823, October.
    3. Yang, Jingjing & Deng, Zhang & Guo, Siyue & Chen, Yixing, 2023. "Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    4. García-Torres, Samy & Kahhat, Ramzy & Santa-Cruz, Sandra, 2017. "Methodology to characterize and quantify debris generation in residential buildings after seismic events," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 117(PB), pages 151-159.
    5. Zhu, Chen & Li, Xiaodong & Zhu, Weina & Gong, Wei, 2022. "Embodied carbon emissions and mitigation potential in China's building sector: An outlook to 2060," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    6. Ling Zhang & Qingqing Lu & Zengwei Yuan & Songyan Jiang & Huijun Wu, 2023. "A bottom‐up modeling of metabolism of the residential building system in China toward 2050," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(2), pages 587-600, April.
    7. Jing Guo & Tomer Fishman & Yao Wang & Alessio Miatto & Wendy Wuyts & Licheng Zheng & Heming Wang & Hiroki Tanikawa, 2021. "Urban development and sustainability challenges chronicled by a century of construction material flows and stocks in Tiexi, China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(1), pages 162-175, February.
    8. Yoshida, Keisuke & Fishman, Tomer & Okuoka, Keijiro & Tanikawa, Hiroki, 2017. "Material stock's overburden: Automatic spatial detection and estimation of domestic extraction and hidden material flows," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 165-175.
    9. Berardi, Umberto, 2017. "A cross-country comparison of the building energy consumptions and their trends," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 230-241.

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