A bottom-up framework incorporating non-commercial energy: Multi-Scenario dynamic simulation for low-carbon transition of rural residential buildings in northwest China

Decarbonising rural residential buildings is pivotal to achieving China's dual-carbon targets, yet practical pathways for implementation remain unclear. Existing research, which predominantly focuses on urban buildings, frequently overlooks rural-specific factors that affect building carbon emissions. This study develops a bottom–up carbon emission prediction model that explicitly accounts for the unique energy consumption structure, building energy efficiency, and carbon reduction measures in the rural areas of Northwest China, a relatively underdeveloped region. The main findings are as follows: (1) Under the baseline scenario, no province in rural Northwest China is expected to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. (2) The promotion of improved biomass stoves and electric cooking and heating equipment, combined with rooftop photovoltaic systems, can substantially contribute to the decarbonisation of rural residential buildings; the combined deployment of these measures reduces provincial operational carbon emissions in 2060 by 85.81 %–99.66 % relative to the baseline, offering a viable green, low–carbon pathway. (3) Within the green and low–carbon transition pathway, shifting the energy mix contributes more to carbon reductions than improving building energy performance. Specifically, a 1 % increase in the green share of the energy mix reduces carbon emissions by 0.03 %–1.10 %, whereas a 1 % reduction in energy intensity yields a 0.02 %–0.13 % decrease, highlighting the greater impact of changes in the energy mix. (4) Rooftop photovoltaic systems contributed most to emission reductions in Shaanxi (29.88 %), whereas clean heating retrofits were the dominant contributor in Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang (39.69 %, 38.68 %, 29.35 %, and 23.54 %, respectively).