IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v646y2024ics0378437124004321.html

Assessing metro network vulnerability with turn-back operations: A Monte Carlo method

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Xiaolei
  • Lei, Zengxiang
  • Duan, Zhengyu

Abstract

Metro network disruptions caused by accidents or maintenance can significantly impact its serviceability. Traditionally, graph theory and complex network methods are utilized to examine topological properties by removing nodes, links, or entire lines. However, in practice, it is the turn-back operation that determines the service cancellations and the affected area. This study assesses metro network vulnerability by considering the turn-back section as the Vulnerability Analysis Unit (VAU). Indicators for evaluating topological accessibility and operational robustness are proposed to assess network performance under disruptions. Monte Carlo method is applied to generate scenarios, involving the removal of various combinations of VAUs. A case study is conducted on Shanghai Metro system. The results indicate that on average, when one VAU is damaged, the travel time will increase by 2.39 minutes and 1.75 % of passengers will move to other transport modes. The critical vulnerable sections are mainly located in radial lines connecting to the loop lines, while those located in or inside the loop line exhibit higher robustness.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Xiaolei & Lei, Zengxiang & Duan, Zhengyu, 2024. "Assessing metro network vulnerability with turn-back operations: A Monte Carlo method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 646(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:646:y:2024:i:c:s0378437124004321
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2024.129923
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437124004321
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2024.129923?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qing-Chang Lu & Shan Lin, 2019. "Vulnerability Analysis of Urban Rail Transit Network within Multi-Modal Public Transport Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Cats, Oded & Krishnakumari, Panchamy, 2020. "Metropolitan rail network robustness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    3. Du, Zhouyang & Tang, Jinjun & Qi, Yong & Wang, Yiwei & Han, Chunyang & Yang, Yifan, 2020. "Identifying critical nodes in metro network considering topological potential: A case study in Shenzhen city—China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    4. Berdica, Katja, 2002. "An introduction to road vulnerability: what has been done, is done and should be done," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 117-127, April.
    5. Derrible, Sybil & Kennedy, Christopher, 2010. "The complexity and robustness of metro networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(17), pages 3678-3691.
    6. Zhang, Jianhua & Wang, Shuliang & Wang, Xiaoyuan, 2018. "Comparison analysis on vulnerability of metro networks based on complex network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 496(C), pages 72-78.
    7. Jiang, Ruoyun & Lu, Qing-Chang & Peng, Zhong-Ren, 2018. "A station-based rail transit network vulnerability measure considering land use dependency," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 10-18.
    8. Wu, Xingtang & Dong, Hairong & Tse, Chi Kong & Ho, Ivan W.H. & Lau, Francis C.M., 2018. "Analysis of metro network performance from a complex network perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 553-563.
    9. Timothy C Matisziw & Tony H Grubesic & Junyu Guo, 2012. "Robustness Elasticity in Complex Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-10, July.
    10. Bertrand Berche & Christian Von Ferber & Taras Holovatch & Yurij Holovatch, 2012. "Transportation Network Stability: A Case Study Of City Transit," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(supp0), pages 1-19.
    11. Xu, Gang & Xu, Zhibang & Gu, Yanyan & Lei, Weiqian & Pan, Yupiao & Liu, Jie & Jiao, Limin, 2020. "Scaling laws in intra-urban systems and over time at the district level in Shanghai, China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    12. Zhang, Jianhua & Wang, Meng, 2019. "Transportation functionality vulnerability of urban rail transit networks based on movingblock: The case of Nanjing metro," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    13. Angeloudis, Panagiotis & Fisk, David, 2006. "Large subway systems as complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 367(C), pages 553-558.
    14. Zhengyu Duan & Xiaolei Liu & Qing Yu & Yi Li, 2022. "Analyzing detour behavior of metro passengers based on mobile phone data," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 289-309, April.
    15. Myung, Young-Soo & Kim, Hyun-joon, 2004. "A cutting plane algorithm for computing k-edge survivability of a network," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 156(3), pages 579-589, August.
    16. Zhang, Jianhua & Xu, Xiaoming & Hong, Liu & Wang, Shuliang & Fei, Qi, 2011. "Networked analysis of the Shanghai subway network, in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4562-4570.
    17. Lu, Qing-Chang & Zhang, Lei & Xu, Peng-Cheng & Cui, Xin & Li, Jing, 2022. "Modeling network vulnerability of urban rail transit under cascading failures: A Coupled Map Lattices approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    18. Sun, Daniel (Jian) & Guan, Shituo, 2016. "Measuring vulnerability of urban metro network from line operation perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 348-359.
    19. Ermagun, Alireza & Tajik, Nazanin & Janatabadi, Fatemeh & Mahmassani, Hani, 2023. "Uncertainty in vulnerability of metro transit networks: A global perspective," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    20. Kopsidas, Athanasios & Kepaptsoglou, Konstantinos, 2022. "Identification of critical stations in a Metro System: A substitute complex network analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 596(C).
    21. Malandri, Caterina & Fonzone, Achille & Cats, Oded, 2018. "Recovery time and propagation effects of passenger transport disruptions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 7-17.
    22. Réka Albert & Hawoong Jeong & Albert-László Barabási, 2000. "Error and attack tolerance of complex networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 406(6794), pages 378-382, July.
    23. Noguchi, Hiroki & Fuse, Masaaki, 2020. "Rethinking critical node problem for railway networks from the perspective of turn-back operation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 558(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yangyang Meng, 2024. "Vulnerability Comparisons of Various Complex Urban Metro Networks Under Multiple Failure Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-19, November.
    2. Dehaghani, Kaveh Rezvani & Morency, Catherine, 2025. "Beyond traditional metrics: Redefining urban metro network vulnerability with redundancy assessment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 664(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi Shen & Gang Ren & Bin Ran, 2021. "Cascading failure analysis and robustness optimization of metro networks based on coupled map lattices: a case study of Nanjing, China," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 537-553, April.
    2. Xu, Chen & Xu, Xueguo, 2024. "A two-stage resilience promotion approach for urban rail transit networks based on topology enhancement and recovery optimization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 635(C).
    3. Noguchi, Hiroki & Fuse, Masaaki, 2020. "Rethinking critical node problem for railway networks from the perspective of turn-back operation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 558(C).
    4. Saei, Saviz & Barker, Kash & Tajik, Nazanin & Ermagun, Alireza, 2026. "On topological measures and network vulnerability patterns: A comparative analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 266(PA).
    5. Liu, Zhihang & Li, Wei & Yang, Yuxiang, 2025. "The robustness of metro networks with the rich-core structure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 657(C).
    6. Kashin Sugishita & Yasuo Asakura, 2021. "Vulnerability studies in the fields of transportation and complex networks: a citation network analysis," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-34, March.
    7. Zhao, Jiaqi & Liang, Qinghuai & Guo, Jiaao & Pu, Keqian, 2024. "Vulnerability assessment and evolution analysis of Beijing's Urban Rail Transit Network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 653(C).
    8. Elisa Frutos Bernal & Angel Martín del Rey, 2019. "Study of the Structural and Robustness Characteristics of Madrid Metro Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-24, June.
    9. Hu, Jie & Wen, Weiping & Zhai, Changhai & Pei, Shunshun, 2024. "Post-earthquake functionality assessment for urban subway systems: Incorporating the combined effects of seismic performance of structural and non-structural systems and functional interdependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    10. Kopsidas, Athanasios & Kepaptsoglou, Konstantinos, 2022. "Identification of critical stations in a Metro System: A substitute complex network analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 596(C).
    11. Dehaghani, Kaveh Rezvani & Morency, Catherine, 2025. "Beyond traditional metrics: Redefining urban metro network vulnerability with redundancy assessment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 664(C).
    12. Hong, Liu & Ye, Bowen & Yan, Han & Zhang, Hui & Ouyang, Min & (Sean) He, Xiaozheng, 2019. "Spatiotemporal vulnerability analysis of railway systems with heterogeneous train flows," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 725-744.
    13. Pan, Shouzheng & Yan, Hai & He, Jia & He, Zhengbing, 2021. "Vulnerability and resilience of transportation systems: A recent literature review," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    14. Ermagun, Alireza & Tajik, Nazanin & Janatabadi, Fatemeh & Mahmassani, Hani, 2023. "Uncertainty in vulnerability of metro transit networks: A global perspective," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Sun, Lishan & Huang, Yuchen & Chen, Yanyan & Yao, Liya, 2018. "Vulnerability assessment of urban rail transit based on multi-static weighted method in Beijing, China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 12-24.
    16. Yangyang Meng & Qingjie Qi & Jianzhong Liu & Wei Zhou, 2022. "Dynamic Evolution Analysis of Complex Topology and Node Importance in Shenzhen Metro Network from 2004 to 2021," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    17. Abdelaty, Hatem & Mohamed, Moataz & Ezzeldin, Mohamed & El-Dakhakhni, Wael, 2022. "Temporal robustness assessment framework for city-scale bus transit networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 606(C).
    18. Nan Zhang & Daniel J. Graham & Daniel Hörcher & Prateek Bansal, 2021. "A causal inference approach to measure the vulnerability of urban metro systems," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(6), pages 3269-3300, December.
    19. Chan, Ho-Yin & Chen, Anthony & Li, Guoyuan & Xu, Xiangdong & Lam, William, 2021. "Evaluating the value of new metro lines using route diversity measures: The case of Hong Kong's Mass Transit Railway system," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    20. Xueguo Xu & Chen Xu & Wenxin Zhang, 2022. "Research on the Destruction Resistance of Giant Urban Rail Transit Network from the Perspective of Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-26, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:646:y:2024:i:c:s0378437124004321. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.