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Social interaction layers in complex networks for the dynamical epidemic modeling of COVID-19 in Brazil

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  • Scabini, Leonardo F.S.
  • Ribas, Lucas C.
  • Neiva, Mariane B.
  • Junior, Altamir G.B.
  • Farfán, Alex J.F.
  • Bruno, Odemir M.

Abstract

We are currently living in a state of uncertainty due to the pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. There are several factors involved in the epidemic spreading, such as the individual characteristics of each city/country. The true shape of the epidemic dynamics is a large, complex system, considerably hard to predict. In this context, Complex networks are a great candidate for analyzing these systems due to their ability to tackle structural and dynamic properties. Therefore, this study presents a new approach to model the COVID-19 epidemic using a multi-layer complex network, where nodes represent people, edges are social contacts, and layers represent different social activities. The model improves the traditional SIR, and it is applied to study the Brazilian epidemic considering data up to 05/26/2020, and analyzing possible future actions and their consequences. The network is characterized using statistics of infection, death, and hospitalization time. To simulate isolation, social distancing, or precautionary measures, we remove layers and reduce social contact’s intensity. Results show that even taking various optimistic assumptions, the current isolation levels in Brazil still may lead to a critical scenario for the healthcare system and a considerable death toll (average of 149,000). If all activities return to normal, the epidemic growth may suffer a steep increase, and the demand for ICU beds may surpass three times the country’s capacity. This situation would surely lead to a catastrophic scenario, as our estimation reaches an average of 212,000 deaths, even considering that all cases are effectively treated. The increase of isolation (up to a lockdown) shows to be the best option to keep the situation under the healthcare system capacity, aside from ensuring a faster decrease of new case occurrences (months of difference), and a significantly smaller death toll (average of 87,000).

Suggested Citation

  • Scabini, Leonardo F.S. & Ribas, Lucas C. & Neiva, Mariane B. & Junior, Altamir G.B. & Farfán, Alex J.F. & Bruno, Odemir M., 2021. "Social interaction layers in complex networks for the dynamical epidemic modeling of COVID-19 in Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 564(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:564:y:2021:i:c:s0378437120307962
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2020.125498
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vega-Redondo,Fernando, 2007. "Complex Social Networks," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521674096.
    2. M. E. J. Newman & D. J. Watts, 1999. "Scaling and Percolation in the Small-World Network Model," Working Papers 99-05-034, Santa Fe Institute.
    3. Cristopher Moore & M. E. J. Newman, 2000. "Epidemics and Percolation in Small-World Networks," Working Papers 00-01-002, Santa Fe Institute.
    4. Vega-Redondo,Fernando, 2007. "Complex Social Networks," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521857406.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Hai & Wang, Jingcheng, 2022. "Pinning synchronization of complex networks with time-varying outer coupling and nonlinear multiple time-varying delay coupling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).
    2. Merenda, João V.B.S. & Bruno, Odemir M., 2023. "Using deterministic self-avoiding walks as a small-world metric on Watts–Strogatz networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 621(C).
    3. Pascoal, R. & Rocha, H., 2022. "Population density impact on COVID-19 mortality rate: A multifractal analysis using French data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).

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