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A model of political voting behaviours across different countries

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  • Rowden, Jessica
  • Lloyd, David J.B.
  • Gilbert, Nigel

Abstract

This paper analyses, models mathematically, and compares national voting behaviours across seven democratic countries that have a long term election history, focusing on re-election rates, leaders’ reputation with voters and the importance of friends’ and family influence. Based on the data, we build a Markov model to test and explore national voting behaviour, showing voters are only influenced by the most recent past election. The seven countries can be divided into those in which there is a high probability that leaders will be re-elected and those in which incumbents have relatively less success.

Suggested Citation

  • Rowden, Jessica & Lloyd, David J.B. & Gilbert, Nigel, 2014. "A model of political voting behaviours across different countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 609-625.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:413:y:2014:i:c:p:609-625
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.07.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Silviu-Petru GRECU, 2019. "Affects, Perception And European Citizenship. Regards In Political Psychology," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6, pages 185-206.

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