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A granular time series approach to long-term forecasting and trend forecasting


  • Dong, Ruijun
  • Pedrycz, Witold


To overcome the “curse of dimensionality” (which plagues most predictors (predictive models) when carrying out long-term forecasts) and cope with uncertainty present in many time series, in this study, we introduce a concept of granular time series which are used to long-term forecasting and trend forecasting. A technique of fuzzy clustering is used to construct information granules on a basis of available numeric data present in the original time series. In the sequel, we develop a forecasting model which captures the essential relationships between such information granules and in this manner constructs a fundamental forecasting mechanism. It is demonstrated that the proposed model comes with a number of advantages which manifest when processing a large number of data. Experimental evidence is provided through a series of examples using which we quantify the performance of the forecasting model and provide with some comparative analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong, Ruijun & Pedrycz, Witold, 2008. "A granular time series approach to long-term forecasting and trend forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(13), pages 3253-3270.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:387:y:2008:i:13:p:3253-3270 DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2008.01.095

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Huarng, Kunhuang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2006. "The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 363(2), pages 481-491.
    2. Snyder, Ralph D. & Koehler, Anne B. & Ord, J. Keith, 2002. "Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-18.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hongze Li & Sen Guo & Huiru Zhao & Chenbo Su & Bao Wang, 2012. "Annual Electric Load Forecasting by a Least Squares Support Vector Machine with a Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(11), pages 1-16, November.
    2. Zhao, Huiru & Guo, Sen, 2016. "An optimized grey model for annual power load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 272-286.
    3. Lahmiri, Salim, 2016. "Interest rate next-day variation prediction based on hybrid feedforward neural network, particle swarm optimization, and multiresolution techniques," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 388-396.
    4. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.


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