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Forecasting method selection in a global supply chain

  • Acar, Yavuz
  • Gardner, Everette S.
Registered author(s):

    In supply chains, forecasting is an important determinant of operational performance, although there have been few studies that have selected forecasting methods on that basis. This paper is a case study of forecasting method selection for a global manufacturer of lubricants and fuel additives, products usually classified as specialty chemicals. We model the supply chain using actual demand data and both optimization and simulation techniques. The optimization, a mixed integer program, depends on demand forecasts to develop production, inventory, and transportation plans that will minimize the total supply chain cost. Tradeoff curves between total costs and customer service are used to compare exponential smoothing methods. The damped trend method produces the best tradeoffs.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207011001634
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 842-848

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:4:p:842-848
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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    1. Syntetos, Aris A. & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Boylan, John E., 2010. "Judging the judges through accuracy-implication metrics: The case of inventory forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 134-143, January.
    2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    3. Snyder, R.D. & Koehler, A. & Ord, K., 1999. "Forecasting for Inventory Control with Exponential Smoothing," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/99, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    4. Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
    5. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Author's retrospective on 'Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages'," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-13.
    6. Everette S. Gardner, 1990. "Evaluating Forecast Performance in an Inventory Control System," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(4), pages 490-499, April.
    7. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    8. Sanders, Nada R. & Graman, Gregory A., 2009. "Quantifying costs of forecast errors: A case study of the warehouse environment," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 116-125, February.
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