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Moving average rules as a source of market instability

  • Chiarella, Carl
  • He, Xue-Zhong
  • Hommes, Cars

Despite the pervasiveness of the efficient markets paradigm in the academic finance literature, the use of various moving average (MA) trading rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. This paper proposes a stochastic dynamic financial market model in which demand for traded assets has both a fundamentalist and a chartist component. The chartist demand is governed by the difference between current price and a (long-run) MA. Our simulations show that the MA is a source of market instability, and the interaction of the MA and market noises can lead to the tendency for the market price to take long excursions away from the fundamental. The model reveals various market price phenomena, the coexistence of apparent market efficiency and a large chartist component, price resistance levels, long memory and skewness and kurtosis of returns.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

Volume (Year): 370 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 12-17

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Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:370:y:2006:i:1:p:12-17
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  1. Cars Hommes & Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2004. "A Dynamical Analysis of Moving Average Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 238, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  4. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
  5. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  6. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
  7. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 503-536, September.
  8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  9. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March.
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