Moving average rules as a source of market instability
Despite the pervasiveness of the efficient markets paradigm in the academic finance literature, the use of various moving average (MA) trading rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. This paper proposes a stochastic dynamic financial market model in which demand for traded assets has both a fundamentalist and a chartist component. The chartist demand is governed by the difference between current price and a (long-run) MA. Our simulations show that the MA is a source of market instability, and the interaction of the MA and market noises can lead to the tendency for the market price to take long excursions away from the fundamental. The model reveals various market price phenomena, the coexistence of apparent market efficiency and a large chartist component, price resistance levels, long memory and skewness and kurtosis of returns.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 370 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cars Hommes & Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2004.
"A Dynamical Analysis of Moving Average Rules,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2004
238, Society for Computational Economics.
- Chiarella, C. & He, X.-Z. & Hommes, C.H., 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Cars Hommes, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," Research Paper Series 133, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Carl Chiarella & Tony He & Cars H. Hommes, 2005. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-057/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999.
"Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1999
223, Society for Computational Economics.
- Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risks and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Research Paper Series 18, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996.
"Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model,"
9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990.
"Bulls, bears and market sheep,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
- Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992.
" Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003.
"Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 503-536, September.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model with a Market Maker," Research Paper Series 35, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:370:y:2006:i:1:p:12-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.