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A Dynamic Analysis Of The Microstructure Of Moving Average Rules In A Double Auction Market

  • Chiarella, Carl
  • He, Xue-Zhong
  • Pellizzari, Paolo

Inspired by the theoretically oriented dynamic analysis of moving average rules in Chiarella, He and Hommes (CHH) (2006a) model, this paper conducts a dynamic analysis of a microstructure model of continuous double auctions in which the probability of heterogeneous agents to trade is determined by the rules of either fundamentalists mean-reverting to the fundamental or chartists choosing moving average rules based their relative performance. With such a realistic market microstructure, the model is able not only to obtain the results of the CHH model but also to characterise most of the stylized facts including the power-law behaviour of volatility. The results seem to suggest that a comprehensive explanation of several statistical properties of returns is possible in a framework where both behavioral traits and realistic microstructure have a role.

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Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2012)
Issue (Month): 04 (September)
Pages: 556-575

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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:16:y:2012:i:04:p:556-575_00
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  1. Marco LiCalzi & Paolo Pellizzari, 2002. "Fundamentalists Clashing over the Book: A Study of Order-Driven Stock Markets," Computational Economics 0207001, EconWPA, revised 04 Mar 2003.
  2. repec:zbw:cauewp:7328 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
  4. Carl Chiarella & Giulia Iori, 2002. "A simulation analysis of the microstructure of double auction markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 346-353.
  5. Thomas Lux, 2008. "Stochastic Behavioral Asset Pricing Models and the Stylized Facts," Kiel Working Papers 1426, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Maslov, Sergei, 2000. "Simple model of a limit order-driven market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 278(3), pages 571-578.
  7. Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  9. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & He, Xue-Zhong, 2007. "Heterogeneous expectations and speculative behavior in a dynamic multi-asset framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 408-427, March.
  10. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2007. "Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3396-3426, October.
  11. Paolo Pellizzari & Frank Westerhoff, 2009. "Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures," Working Papers 190, Department of Applied Mathematics, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
  12. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
  13. Carl Chiarella & Giulia Iori & Josep Perello, 2007. "The Impact of Heterogeneous Trading Rules on the Limit Order Book and Order Flows," Papers 0711.3581, arXiv.org.
  14. Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  15. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October.
  16. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Cars Hommes, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," Research Paper Series 133, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  17. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 503-536, September.
  18. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
  19. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Hommes, Cars, 2006. "Moving average rules as a source of market instability," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 12-17.
  20. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2005. "The Dynamic Interaction of Speculation and Diversification," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 17-52.
  22. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2008. "Heterogeneity, convergence, and autocorrelations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 59-79.
  23. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  24. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
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