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A Dynamic Analysis Of The Microstructure Of Moving Average Rules In A Double Auction Market

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  • Chiarella, Carl
  • He, Xue-Zhong
  • Pellizzari, Paolo

Abstract

Inspired by the theoretically oriented dynamic analysis of moving average rules in the model of Chiarella, He, and Hommes (CHH) [ Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 30 (2006), 1729—1753], this paper conducts a dynamic analysis of a more realistic microstructure model of continuous double auctions in which the probability of heterogeneous agents trading is determined by the rules of either fundamentalists mean-reverting to the fundamental or chartists choosing moving average rules based on their relative performance. With such a realistic market microstructure, the model is able not only to obtain the results of the CHH model but also to characterize most of the stylized facts including volatility clustering, insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) of returns, and significant slowly decaying ACs of the absolute returns. The results seem to suggest that a comprehensive explanation of several statistical properties of returns is possible in a framework where both behavioral traits and realistic microstructure have a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Pellizzari, Paolo, 2012. "A Dynamic Analysis Of The Microstructure Of Moving Average Rules In A Double Auction Market," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 556-575, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:16:y:2012:i:04:p:556-575_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    2. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2008. "Heterogeneity, convergence, and autocorrelations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 59-79.
    3. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
    4. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2007. "Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3396-3426, October.
    6. Maslov, Sergei, 2000. "Simple model of a limit order-driven market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 278(3), pages 571-578.
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    8. Chiarella, Carl & Iori, Giulia, 2009. "The impact of heterogeneous trading rules on the limit order book and order flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 525-537.
    9. Pellizzari, Paolo & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 850-863, December.
    10. Marco Licalzi & Paolo Pellizzari, 2003. "Fundamentalists clashing over the book: a study of order-driven stock markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 470-480.
    11. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Pellizzari & Dan Ladley, 2014. "The simplicity of optimal trading in order book markets," Working Papers 2014:05, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Wang, Lijun & An, Haizhong & Liu, Xiaojia & Huang, Xuan, 2016. "Selecting dynamic moving average trading rules in the crude oil futures market using a genetic approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1608-1618.
    3. Mingjie Ji & Honggang Li, 2016. "Exploring Price Fluctuations in a Double Auction Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(2), pages 189-209, August.
    4. repec:eee:phsmap:v:486:y:2017:i:c:p:618-627 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets

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