IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v94y2025ics0927538x25002768.html

Unlocking the true price impact: Intraday liquidity and expected return in China’s stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Cheng, Hang
  • Shi, Yongdong
  • Zhang, Tong

Abstract

We propose a new framework for pricing illiquidity risk in China’s stock market. Grounded in market microstructure and behavioral finance theory, our time-weighted intraday Amihud (TIAM) measure isolates true trading-driven price impact and empirically outperforms traditional daily proxies. A rigorous dissection of the TIAM premium reveals that its characteristics of long-horizon persistence and strong countercyclicality are consistent with compensation for systematic risk, not transient mispricing. We distill this premium into a size-neutral Intraday Illiquidity Factor (IML) that earns a significant alpha against established asset pricing models. We demonstrate that our friction-based illiquidity factor provides a powerful, risk-based explanation for a substantial portion of the size and sentiment anomalies, reframing them as manifestations of a more fundamental, structural risk. Our findings establish intraday illiquidity as a distinct dimension of priced risk, crucial for understanding the asset pricing dynamics of emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Hang & Shi, Yongdong & Zhang, Tong, 2025. "Unlocking the true price impact: Intraday liquidity and expected return in China’s stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:94:y:2025:i:c:s0927538x25002768
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102939
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X25002768
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102939?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sadka, Ronnie, 2006. "Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 309-349, May.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    3. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    4. Sanford J. Grossman & Merton H. Miller, 1988. "Liquidity and Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 2641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Andy C W Chui & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 2022. "Momentum, Reversals, and Investor Clientele [Illiquidity and stock returns: Cross-section and time-series effects]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 217-255.
    6. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
    7. Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Evaporating Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2005-2039.
    8. R. David Mclean & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2016. "Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 5-32, February.
    9. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    10. Allaudeen Hameed & Wenjin Kang & S. Viswanathan, 2010. "Stock Market Declines and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 257-293, February.
    11. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    12. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Kong, Dongmin & Wu, Ji, 2017. "Do extreme returns matter in emerging markets? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 189-197.
    13. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & René Garcia, 2012. "Bond Liquidity Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1207-1254.
    14. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    15. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    16. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2011. "Recent trends in trading activity and market quality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 243-263, August.
    17. Drienko, Jozef & Smith, Tom & von Reibnitz, Anna, 2019. "A Review of the Return—Illiquidity Relationship," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 8(1-2), pages 127-171, December.
    18. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    20. Xiaoxia Lou & Tao Shu, 2017. "Price Impact or Trading Volume: Why Is the Amihud (2002) Measure Priced?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(12), pages 4481-4520.
    21. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:617-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Liu, Junhao & Hope, Ole-Kristian & Hu, Danqi, 2023. "Earnings announcements in China: Overnight-intraday disparity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    24. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    25. Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Lien, Donald & Sheu, Her-Jiun & Yang, Chung-Jen, 2024. "An extension analysis of Amihud's illiquidity premium: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    26. Liu, Jianan & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yuan, Yu, 2019. "Size and value in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 48-69.
    27. Yang Liu & Guofu Zhou & Yingzi Zhu, 2024. "Trend Factor in China: The Role of Large Individual Trading," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 348-380.
    28. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    29. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    30. Yashar H Barardehi & Dan Bernhardt & Thomas G Ruchti & Marc Weidenmier, 2021. "The Night and Day of Amihud’s (2002) Liquidity Measure [Asset pricing with liquidity risk]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 269-308.
    31. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    32. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Lin Sun, 2020. "Short- and Long-Horizon Behavioral Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1673-1736.
    33. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    34. Cheng, Hang & Guo, Hui & Shi, Yongdong, 2024. "Multifactor conditional equity premium model: Evidence from China's stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    35. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    36. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    37. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    38. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    39. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    40. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    41. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2016. "Dissecting Anomalies with a Five-Factor Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 69-103.
    42. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Michael J. Schill, 2008. "Asset Growth and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1609-1651, August.
    43. Chen, Qi-an & Hu, Qingyu & Yang, Hu & Qi, Kai, 2022. "A kind of new time-weighted nonnegative lasso index-tracking model and its application," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    44. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    45. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kadan, Ohad & Wohl, Avi, 2015. "The Diminishing Liquidity Premium," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1-2), pages 197-229, April.
    46. Lesmond, David A & Ogden, Joseph P & Trzcinka, Charles A, 1999. "A New Estimate of Transaction Costs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1113-1141.
    47. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
    48. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Lin Sun, 2020. "Short- and Long-Horizon Behavioral Factors," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1673-1736.
    49. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    50. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    51. Yakov Amihud & Joonki Noh & Andrew Karolyi, 2021. "Illiquidity and Stock Returns II: Cross-section and Time-series Effects [A simple estimation of bid-ask spreads from daily close, high and low prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(4), pages 2101-2123.
    52. Bogousslavsky, Vincent, 2021. "The cross-section of intraday and overnight returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 172-194.
    53. Zhou, Xiaozhou & Zhan, Feng & Chan, Chang, 2025. "How retail investors affect the stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    54. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 2003. "Trade Execution Costs and Market Quality after Decimalization," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 747-777, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    2. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    3. Su, Zhi & Lyu, Tongtong & Yin, Libo, 2022. "Are conditional illiquidity risks priced in China? A cross-sectional test," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Paul, Thomas & Aryoubi, Abdullah & Walther, Thomas, 2025. "Reassessing the Illiquidity-Return Relationship: Evidence from Germany, the UK, and the U.S," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. Stereńczak, Szymon & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2020. "Is there an illiquidity premium in frontier markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    6. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    7. Doron Avramov & Guy Kaplanski & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2022. "Postfundamentals Price Drift in Capital Markets: A Regression Regularization Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7658-7681, October.
    8. Ruenzi, Stefan & Ungeheuer, Michael & Weigert, Florian, 2020. "Joint Extreme events in equity returns and liquidity and their cross-sectional pricing implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    9. Wang, Zijun, 2021. "The high volume return premium and economic fundamentals," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 325-345.
    10. Auer, Benjamin R. & Rottmann, Horst, 2019. "Have capital market anomalies worldwide attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 61-79.
    11. Kim, Jinyong & Kim, Yongsik, 2023. "Which stock price component drives the Amihud illiquidity premium?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Sanjiv Das & Paul Hanouna, 2010. "Run lengths and liquidity," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 127-152, April.
    13. Sean A. Anthonisz & Tālis J. Putniņš, 2017. "Asset Pricing with Downside Liquidity Risks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(8), pages 2549-2572, August.
    14. Virk, Nader Shahzad & Butt, Hilal Anwar, 2022. "Asset pricing anomalies: Liquidity risk hedgers or liquidity risk spreaders?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Wu, Ying, 2019. "Asset pricing with extreme liquidity risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 143-165.
    16. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224, December.
    17. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    18. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    19. Liu, Xufeng & Wan, Die, 2022. "Asymmetric positive feedback trading and stock pricing in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    20. Lin, Chaonan & Chen, Hong-Yi & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2021. "Time-dependent lottery preference and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 272-294.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:94:y:2025:i:c:s0927538x25002768. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.