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Spillover effects of MSCI inclusion announcement: Evidence and implications from China

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  • Wei, Zhihua
  • Wu, Deqian
  • Zeng, Aimin
  • Li, Bo

Abstract

We investigate the price reactions of stocks that would not be included in the MSCI global indices to the MSCI inclusion announcement. We document a positive revaluation effect for connected stocks, but not for unconnected stocks. Based on the institutional background and existing theories, we propose three non-competing hypotheses: the signaling hypothesis, the speculative trading hypothesis, and the market integration hypothesis. With a series of tests, we demonstrate that the market integration hypothesis can explain this phenomenon. Specifically, the price revaluations of connected stocks are proportional to firm-specific conditional market risk, and this relationship is stronger in firms with high transparency and liquidity and is dampened by the existence of B- or H-shares. Our paper provides new evidence and insights into the impact of global index inclusion on asset prices and the degree of market integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei, Zhihua & Wu, Deqian & Zeng, Aimin & Li, Bo, 2024. "Spillover effects of MSCI inclusion announcement: Evidence and implications from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:88:y:2024:i:c:s0927538x24003342
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102582
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    MSCI inclusion; Spillover effect; Index effect; Market segmentation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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