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Industry herding and momentum strategies

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  • Demirer, Rıza
  • Lien, Donald
  • Zhang, Huacheng

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of industry herding on return momentum. While the findings support that winner industries outperform loser industries in subsequent months, we find that the profitability of industry momentum strategies depends on the level of herding in an industry. Loser industries with high level of herding yield significantly lower subsequent returns than loser industries with low level of herding while no significant difference in subsequent returns is observed for winner industries across low and high herding levels. The asymmetry in the relationship between herding and momentum returns is in fact the driving factor behind profitable, zero-cost momentum strategies and suggests that the level of herding in an industry must be considered in the implementation of industry momentum strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Demirer, Rıza & Lien, Donald & Zhang, Huacheng, 2015. "Industry herding and momentum strategies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 95-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:32:y:2015:i:c:p:95-110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2015.02.010
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    2. Omokolade Akinsomi & Mehmet Balcilar & Rıza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The effect of gold market speculation on REIT returns in South Africa: a behavioral perspective," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 774-793, October.
    3. Ardila-Alvarez, Diego & Forro, Zalan & Sornette, Didier, 2021. "The acceleration effect and Gamma factor in asset pricing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 569(C).
    4. Jeonghwa Cha & Kyungbo Park & Hangook Kim & Jongyi Hong, 2023. "Crisis Index Prediction Based on Momentum Theory and Earnings Downside Risk Theory: Focusing on South Korea’s Energy Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-20, February.
    5. Rıza Demirer & Huacheng Zhang, 2019. "Do firm characteristics matter in explaining the herding effect on returns?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 256-271, April.
    6. Demirer, Riza & Yuksel, Asli & Yuksel, Aydin, 2022. "Time-varying risk aversion and currency excess returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    7. L. Lin & M. Schatz & D. Sornette, 2019. "A simple mechanism for financial bubbles: time-varying momentum horizon," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 937-959, June.
    8. Yeng May Tan & Fan Fah Cheng, 2019. "Industry- and liquidity-based momentum in Australian equities," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
    9. Demirer, Rıza & Leggio, Karyl B. & Lien, Donald, 2019. "Herding and flash events: Evidence from the 2010 Flash Crash," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    10. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2016. "A Simple Mechanism for Financial Bubbles: Time-Varying Momentum Horizon," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-61, Swiss Finance Institute.
    11. Bob Li & Mong Shan Ee & Mamunur Rashid, 2016. "Is momentum trading profitable from Shari'ah compliant stocks?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 56-63, November.
    12. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    13. Chen, Chun-Da & Cheng, Chiao-Ming & Demirer, Rıza, 2017. "Oil and stock market momentum," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 151-159.
    14. Luo, Jiawen & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Forecasting oil and gold volatilities with sentiment indicators under structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    15. Li, Bob & Ee, Mong Shan & Rashid, Mamunur, 2016. "Is momentum trading profitable from Shari'ah compliant stocks?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 56-63.
    16. Bhaskar Chhimwal & Varadraj Bapat, 2021. "Comparative Study of Momentum and Contrarian Behavior of Different Investors: Evidence from the Indian Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(1), pages 19-53, March.
    17. Bruce J. Vanstone & Tom Smith & Tobias Hahn, 2017. "Australian momentum: performance, capacity and the GFC effect," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(1), pages 261-287, March.
    18. Tao Huang & Xueyong Zhang, 2022. "Media coverage of industry and the cross‐section of stock returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(S1), pages 1107-1141, April.
    19. Tung-Yueh Pai & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2018. "Industry Herding, Spillover Index and Investment Strategy," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(6), pages 1-6.
    20. Li, Wei & Rhee, Ghon & Wang, Steven Shuye, 2017. "Differences in herding: Individual vs. institutional investors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 174-185.
    21. Nha Duc Bui & Loan Thi Bich Nguyen & Nhung Thi Tuyet Nguyen & Gordon Frederick Titman, 2018. "Herding in frontier stock markets: evidence from the Vietnamese stock market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 59-81, November.
    22. Ali, Sara & Badshah, Ihsan & Demirer, Riza, 2023. "Anti-herding by hedge funds and its implications for expected returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 31-48.
    23. John Hua Fan & Tingxi Zhang, 2020. "The untold story of commodity futures in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 671-706, April.
    24. Bruce Vanstone & Tobias Hahn & Dean Earea, 2021. "Industry momentum: an exchange‐traded funds approach," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4007-4024, September.
    25. Hui HONG & Shulin XU & Chien-Chiang LEE, 2020. "Investor Herding in the China Stock Market: An Examination of ChiNext," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 47-61, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum; Industry herding; Chinese stock markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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