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Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates

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  • Wallsten, Thomas S.
  • Diederich, Adele

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  • Wallsten, Thomas S. & Diederich, Adele, 2001. "Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:41:y:2001:i:1:p:1-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    2. Etemadi, Nasrollah, 1983. "On the laws of large numbers for nonnegative random variables," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 187-193, March.
    3. Thomas S. Wallsten & David V. Budescu & Rami Zwick, 1993. "Comparing the Calibration and Coherence of Numerical and Verbal Probability Judgments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(2), pages 176-190, February.
    4. Peter A. Morris, 1983. "An Axiomatic Approach to Expert Resolution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 24-32, January.
    5. Council of the Islamic Fiqh Academy of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, 1992. "Of the Resolutions of the Council of the Islamic Fiqh Academy of the Organization of the Islamic Conference at its previous conference held in Jeddah from 7 to 12 Node 1412 H corresponding to 9-14 May," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 4(1), pages 83-90, January.
    6. Robert L. Winkler, 1986. "Expert Resolution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 298-303, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2017. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Discussion Paper Series dp709, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    2. Saemi Park & David V. Budescu, 2015. "Aggregating multiple probability intervals to improve calibration," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(2), pages 130-143, March.
    3. Roopesh Ranjan & Tilmann Gneiting, 2010. "Combining probability forecasts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(1), pages 71-91, January.
    4. Jonathan Baron & Barbara A. Mellers & Philip E. Tetlock & Eric Stone & Lyle H. Ungar, 2014. "Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 133-145, June.
    5. Satopää, Ville A. & Baron, Jonathan & Foster, Dean P. & Mellers, Barbara A. & Tetlock, Philip E. & Ungar, Lyle H., 2014. "Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 344-356.
    6. David V. Budescu & Eva Chen, 2015. "Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 267-280, February.
    7. Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2018. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1779-1803, April.
    8. repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:2:p:130-143 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Robert Mislavsky & Celia Gaertig, 2022. "Combining Probability Forecasts: 60% and 60% Is 60%, but Likely and Likely Is Very Likely," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 541-563, January.
    10. Budescu, David V. & Rantilla, Adrian K. & Yu, Hsiu-Ting & Karelitz, Tzur M., 2003. "The effects of asymmetry among advisors on the aggregation of their opinions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 178-194, January.

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