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Infectious diseases and economic growth

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  • Goenka, Aditya
  • Liu, Lin
  • Nguyen, Manh-Hung

Abstract

This paper develops a framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a neo-classical growth model. There is a two way interaction between the economy and the disease: the incidence of the disease affects labor supply, and investment in health capital can affect the incidence and recuperation from the disease. Thus, both the disease incidence and the income levels are endogenous. The disease dynamics make the control problem non-convex thus usual optimal control results do not apply. We establish existence of an optimal solution, continuity of state variables, show directly that the Hamiltonian inequality holds thus establishing optimality of interior paths that satisfy necessary conditions, and of the steady states. There are multiple steady states and the local dynamics of the model are fully characterized. A disease-free steady state always exists, but it could be unstable. A disease-endemic steady state may exist, in which the optimal health expenditure can be positive or zero depending on the parameters of the model. The interaction of the disease and economic variables is non-linear and can be non-monotonic.

Suggested Citation

  • Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2014. "Infectious diseases and economic growth," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 34-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:50:y:2014:i:c:p:34-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2013.10.004
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lin Liu & Aditya Goenka, 2017. "Infectious Diseases, Human Capital and Economic Growth," 2017 Meeting Papers 1218, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Stefano Bosi & David Desmarchelier, 2016. "Pollution and infectious diseases," Working Papers 2016.22, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    3. Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu, 2012. "Infectious diseases and endogenous fluctuations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 50(1), pages 125-149, May.
    4. Chakraborty, Shankha & Papageorgiou, Chris & Sebastián, Fidel Pérez, 2016. "Health Cycles And Health Transitions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(01), pages 189-213, January.
    5. David Aadland & David Finnoff & Kevin X. D. Huang, 2016. "Behavioral Origins of Epidemiological Bifurcations," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 16-00004, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    6. Théophile Azomahou & Bity Diene & Mbaye Diene & Luc Soete, 2015. "Optimal health investment and preference structure," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 60(3), pages 521-565, November.
    7. Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2014. "Infectious diseases and economic growth," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 34-53.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemiology; Infectious diseases; Existence of equilibrium; Sufficiency in non-convex dynamic problems; Health expenditure; Economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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