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SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality

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  • Aditya Goenka

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Lin Liu

    (University of Liverpool)

  • Nguyen, Manh-Hung

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper studies an optimal growth model where health expenditures (alternatively lockdowns) can be made to reduce infectivity of the disease when there is an infectious disease with SIR dynamics and infections can cause disease related mortality. We study implications of two different SIR models - with early mortality and with late mortality from the disease - on health outcomes, optimal response and on economic outcomes in equilibrium. We characterize the steady states and show how these vary when varying mortality. The outcomes are sensitive to the specification of the epidemiology model. We also study sufficiency conditions and provide the first results in economic models with SIR dynamics with and without disease related mortality - a class of models which are non-convex and have endogenous discounting so that no existing results are applicable.

Suggested Citation

  • Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2020. "SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality," Discussion Papers 20-25, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    • Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:20-25
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    Cited by:

    1. Hai-Anh Dang & Toan L.D. Huynh & Manh-Hung Nguyen, 2023. "Does the COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately affect the poor? Evidence from a six-country survey," Journal of Economics and Development, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 2-18, December.
    2. Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu & Manh-Hung Nguyen, 2021. "Modeling optimal quarantines with waning immunity," Discussion Papers 21-10, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    3. Vahdani, Behnam & Mohammadi, Mehrdad & Thevenin, Simon & Meyer, Patrick & Dolgui, Alexandre, 2023. "Production-sharing of critical resources with dynamic demand under pandemic situation: The COVID-19 pandemic," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Cozzi, Guido & Galli, Silvia, 2022. "Covid-19 Vaccines, Innovation, and Intellectual Property Rights," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1095, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Michael Freiberger & Dieter Grass & Michael Kuhn & Andrea Seidl & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2022. "Chasing up and locking down the virus: Optimal pandemic interventions within a network," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 1182-1217, October.
    6. Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2021. "COVID-19 and a Green Recovery?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Grass, Dieter & Feichtinger, Gustav & Hartl, Richard F. & Kort, Peter M. & Prskawetz, Alexia & Seidl, Andrea & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2021. "The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Luca Gori & Cristiana Mammana & Piero Manfredi & Elisabetta Michetti, 2022. "Economic development with deadly communicable diseases and public prevention," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 912-943, October.
    9. Carmona, Julio & León, ángel, 2021. "Pandemic Effects in the Solow Growth Model," QM&ET Working Papers 21-1, University of Alicante, D. Quantitative Methods and Economic Theory, revised 07 Apr 2022.
    10. Jacek Rothert, 2022. "Optimal federal transfers during uncoordinated response to a pandemic," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 1124-1153, October.
    11. Jacek Rothert, 2021. "Optimal federal transfers during uncoordinated response to a pandemic," GRAPE Working Papers 58, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    12. Carmona, Julio, 2022. "A Simple Endemic Growth Model for Undergraduates," QM&ET Working Papers 22-1, University of Alicante, D. Quantitative Methods and Economic Theory, revised 03 Mar 2022.
    13. Cui Zhang & Dandan Zhang, 2023. "Spatial Interactions and the Spread of COVID-19: A Network Perspective," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 383-405, June.
    14. Sharbayta, Sileshi Sintayehu & Buonomo, Bruno & d'Onofrio, Alberto & Abdi, Tadesse, 2022. "‘Period doubling’ induced by optimal control in a behavioral SIR epidemic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. Zachariah Sinkala & Vajira Manathunga & Bichaka Fayissa, 2022. "An Epidemic Compartment Model for Economic Policy Directions for Managing Future Pandemic," Papers 2202.05374, arXiv.org.
    16. Carmona, Julio, 2024. "Using the Solow Growth Model. The Impact of Endemic Diseases on Economic Growth," QM&ET Working Papers 24-1, University of Alicante, D. Quantitative Methods and Economic Theory.
    17. Guimarães, Luís, 2021. "Antibody tests: They are more important than we thought," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Infectious diseases; Covid-19; SIR model; mortality; sufficiency conditions; economic growth; lockdown; prevention; health expenditure.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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