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Probabilistic subjective expected utility

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  • Blavatskyy, Pavlo R.

Abstract

This paper develops the first model of probabilistic choice under subjective uncertainty (when probabilities of events are not objectively known). The model is characterized by seven standard axioms (probabilistic completeness, weak stochastic transitivity, nontriviality, event-wise dominance, probabilistic continuity, existence of an essential event, and probabilistic independence) as well as one new axiom. The model has an intuitive econometric interpretation as a Fechner model of (relative) random errors. The baseline model is extended from binary choice to decisions among m>2 alternatives using a new method, which is also applicable to other models of binary choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Blavatskyy, Pavlo R., 2012. "Probabilistic subjective expected utility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 47-50.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:48:y:2012:i:1:p:47-50
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2011.11.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fishburn, Peter C, 1978. "A Probabilistic Expected Utility Theory of Risky Binary Choices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(3), pages 633-646, October.
    2. Pavlo R. Blavatskyy, 2011. "A Model of Probabilistic Choice Satisfying First-Order Stochastic Dominance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 542-548, March.
    3. Hey, John D & Orme, Chris, 1994. "Investigating Generalizations of Expected Utility Theory Using Experimental Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1291-1326, November.
    4. Wilcox, Nathaniel T., 2011. "'Stochastically more risk averse:' A contextual theory of stochastic discrete choice under risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 89-104, May.
    5. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1995. "Incorporating a stochastic element into decision theories," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 641-648, April.
    6. Pavlo R. Blavatskyy, 2009. "How to Extend a Model of Probabilistic Choice from Binary Choices to Choices among More Than Two Alternatives," IEW - Working Papers 426, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    7. Paolo Ghirardato & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Marciano Siniscalchi, 2003. "A Subjective Spin on Roulette Wheels," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1897-1908, November.
    8. Huber, Joel & Payne, John W & Puto, Christopher, 1982. " Adding Asymmetrically Dominated Alternatives: Violations of Regularity and the Similarity Hypothesis," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 90-98, June.
    9. Huber, Joel & Puto, Christopher, 1983. " Market Boundaries and Product Choice: Illustrating Attraction and Substitution Effects," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 31-44, June.
    10. Blavatskyy, Pavlo R., 2009. "How to extend a model of probabilistic choice from binary choices to choices among more than two alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 330-332, December.
    11. Kaisa Herne, 1999. "The Effects of Decoy Gambles on Individual Choice," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 2(1), pages 31-40, August.
    12. Amos Tversky & Itamar Simonson, 1993. "Context-Dependent Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(10), pages 1179-1189, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Blavatskyy, Pavlo, 2015. "Behavior in the centipede game: A decision-theoretical perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 117-122.
    2. Matthew Ryan, 2015. "Binary Choice Probabilities on Mixture Sets," Working Papers 2015-01, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    3. repec:eee:mateco:v:73:y:2017:i:c:p:142-148 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:spr:joecth:v:65:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s00199-017-1033-4 is not listed on IDEAS

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