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A Model of Probabilistic Choice Satisfying First-Order Stochastic Dominance

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  • Pavlo R. Blavatskyy

    () (Institute of Public Finance, University of Innsbruck, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria)

Abstract

This paper presents a new model of probabilistic binary choice under risk. In this model, a decision maker always satisfies first-order stochastic dominance. If neither lottery stochastically dominates the other alternative, a decision maker chooses in a probabilistic manner. The proposed model is derived from four standard axioms (completeness, weak stochastic transitivity, continuity, and common consequence independence) and two relatively new axioms. The proposed model provides a better fit to experimental data than do existing models. The baseline model can be extended to other domains such as modeling variable consumer demand. This paper was accepted by Peter Wakker, decision analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavlo R. Blavatskyy, 2011. "A Model of Probabilistic Choice Satisfying First-Order Stochastic Dominance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 542-548, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:3:p:542-548
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1100.1285
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fishburn, Peter C, 1978. "A Probabilistic Expected Utility Theory of Risky Binary Choices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(3), pages 633-646, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dagsvik, John K., 2015. "Stochastic models for risky choices: A comparison of different axiomatizations," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 81-88.
    2. Blavatskyy, Pavlo, 2013. "Which decision theory?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 40-44.
    3. Navarro-Martinez, Daniel & Loomes, Graham & Isoni, Andrea & Butler, David & Alaoui, Larbi, 2017. "Boundedly Rational Expected Utility Theory," MPRA Paper 79893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:kap:jrisku:v:54:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11166-017-9251-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Blavatskyy, Pavlo R., 2012. "Probabilistic subjective expected utility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 47-50.
    6. Michael H. Birnbaum & Ulrich Schmidt & Miriam D. Schneider, 2017. "Testing independence conditions in the presence of errors and splitting effects," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 61-85, February.
    7. Blavatskyy, Pavlo, 2015. "Behavior in the centipede game: A decision-theoretical perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 117-122.
    8. repec:eee:mateco:v:73:y:2017:i:c:p:142-148 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Pavlo Blavatskyy, 2014. "Stronger utility," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 76(2), pages 265-286, February.
    10. David Butler & Andrea Isoni & Graham Loomes, 2012. "Testing the ‘standard’ model of stochastic choice under risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 191-213, December.
    11. Blavatskyy, Pavlo, 2016. "Probability weighting and L-moments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(1), pages 103-109.
    12. David Butler & Andrea Isoni & Graham Loomes & Kei Tsutsui, 2014. "Beyond choice: investigating the sensitivity and validity of measures of strength of preference," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(4), pages 537-563, December.

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